Saturday, December 29, 2012
Here's Why A Weak Yen Will Destroy Japan
The clowns in the LDP think a weak yen will rescue Japan's faltering economy by making exports cheaper... Sounds good... That is, if there anyone to buy Japanese goods.
I fear that the weaker yen will be the last straw in breaking the Japanese Economy. Here's my reasoning why...
China and Japan are in a row over islands. Boom! Down goes exports to Japan's biggest trading partner. Please refer to the NY Times article, "Japan Trade Suffers as China Ties Deteriorate":
"Shipments to China, which is Japan's biggest trading partner, tumbled 14.1 per cent as demand dropped for Japan-branded products..."
Also refer to Japanese Car Sales Plunge Amid China Rage.
Europe is in no condition to be big spenders on anything as Euro states are already in deep recession.
The USA isn't in good shape either as it is in recession too and Japanese cars aren't selling well due to Fukushima and other issues.
Gee? So what will a weak yen certainly buy for Japan? Answer: How about a 10% increase across the board on energy imports?
From Forbes Magazines, please refer to: Japan's Energy Dependence
Data from the Energy Data and Modeling Center (EDMC), Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, for 2008 published in the APEC Energy Overview (2010), paint a stark picture of Japan’s energy vulnerability:
– Of total primary energy supply (508,327 kiloton of oil equivalent (ktoe)), 85 percent (433,725 ktoe) was imported. The breakdown of primary energy was coal 23 percent, oil 44 percent, gas 17 percent, and other 17 percent.
–For final energy consumption in ktoe, the industrial sector took 45 percent; the transport sector 24 percent; and other sectors 31 percent. By type of energy: coal 11 percent, oil 53 percent, gas 9 percent, and electricity and other 28 percent.
Don't forget that these are 2008 figures - three years before the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear disaster. Things have gotten much worse since then. Now take all that imported oil and natural gas (and coal) and jack up the price 10%... What do you get?
Couple that sum with the 2% inflation rate targeted by the new government of Shinzo Abe and you get a collapse of the Japanese economy.
2013 is not going to be pretty for the Japanese economy.