tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post5009801352698422760..comments2024-03-14T07:32:30.141+09:00Comments on Marketing Japan: Why the Three Doors is Not Such a Difficult Problemmike in tokyo rogershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04977446676243085409noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-84715103536731221742011-05-16T10:52:23.963+09:002011-05-16T10:52:23.963+09:00OK, Boo... So what you are saying is that in 9 tim...OK, Boo... So what you are saying is that in 9 times out of ten that you refrain from voting that had you voted you would have chosen the logical choice.... Me! <br />Thanks I knew I could count on you in the next election! Chuckle! PS: Looking for a running mate, interested?mike in tokyo rogershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04977446676243085409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-20249953707551423262011-05-16T10:37:45.306+09:002011-05-16T10:37:45.306+09:00Oh my...please don't compare mathematicians to...Oh my...please don't compare mathematicians to economists and politicians...please. It upsets my stomach.<br /><br />In fact, in your previous post you made a very good point: that a certain condition was implied but not stated outright because you thought it was "obvious" as a TV guy.<br />This points to a fundamental difference between natural language, which relies on unstated external context for meaning, versus mathematical language, which does its best to eliminate external context. <br />This is why I really really hate it when people state math problems in English. It confuses the matter, and clever pols/economists take advantage of unstated "obvious" assumptions to get people to think the way they want, while sounding sort of scientific. The use of English is the equivalent of the distractor in the shell game.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-43457300424658235512011-05-16T08:48:59.634+09:002011-05-16T08:48:59.634+09:00OK, I went back and re-read it.
It says that I am...OK, I went back and re-read it.<br /><br />It says that I am shown door B or 2, NOT that I am always shown the sandwich.<br /><br />That makes a big difference. Always door 2...Pootsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-9718377816482111022011-05-16T08:33:48.059+09:002011-05-16T08:33:48.059+09:00"Like I said, this is simple and any diagramm..."Like I said, this is simple and any diagramming of this problem would show you the answer. You choose door #1 in every example. In the top, you switch. In the bottom, you stay."mike in tokyo rogershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04977446676243085409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-37181760991002735822011-05-16T08:33:04.505+09:002011-05-16T08:33:04.505+09:00Poots. Thanks. Read it again. In the first three y...Poots. Thanks. Read it again. In the first three you choose door #1 and switch. The host always shows you a door with the sandwich.<br />In the second examples doors 4~6. You stay. It's 2/3 to switch.mike in tokyo rogershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04977446676243085409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-12554736445303118702011-05-16T08:27:49.476+09:002011-05-16T08:27:49.476+09:00Not so fast Mike.
You are playing a bit fast and ...Not so fast Mike.<br /><br />You are playing a bit fast and loose with the options here.<br /><br />In your chart options 2 and 5 are NOT offered. <br /><br />You do not allow for the option of choosing what is a 100% chance of opting for the correct door, you only allow for it to be eliminated from the selection.<br /><br />Since options 2 and 5 are eliminated that only leaves options 1, 3, 4, & 6.<br /><br />In each case – switch from door 1 or stay with door 1 the chances are the same – 50/50.Pootsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-15222880043468650532011-05-16T08:04:41.521+09:002011-05-16T08:04:41.521+09:00James! An A+ and extra points for enthusiasm!James! An A+ and extra points for enthusiasm!mike in tokyo rogershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04977446676243085409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-82981502621955540632011-05-16T06:38:59.340+09:002011-05-16T06:38:59.340+09:00Oooh, oooo, oooooo! Mr Kotter, Mr Kotter!
Lessee...Oooh, oooo, oooooo! Mr Kotter, Mr Kotter!<br /><br />Lessee, first take the chicken across. Come back, pick up the seeds and bring them back across. When you drop off the seeds, put the chicken back in the boat before he eats them. Take the chicken back across and then drop off the chicken and pick up the dog. Bring the dog across and leave it with the seeds, then go back across and pick up the chicken.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03875665895670908529noreply@blogger.com