tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post6466901697163090020..comments2024-03-14T07:32:30.141+09:00Comments on Marketing Japan: Critical Thinking Quiz & The Three Doorsmike in tokyo rogershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04977446676243085409noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-18039447567682347232011-05-15T19:47:21.817+09:002011-05-15T19:47:21.817+09:00Thanks Boo... From a TV background, I think it is ...Thanks Boo... From a TV background, I think it is obvious that the host of the show would know what's behind the doors (otherwise this show would be very anti-climatic and get cancelled very soon!) Of course it goes without saying that the host of the show knows what's behind each door. It's his show. <br /><br />But, I checked, and even though Marilyn Vos Savant agrees with me, that it is obvious that the host knows what's behind the doors (as in her peanut under the cups example), I checked and did find out that you are right:. Here is the exact text as the question was originally stated in "Ask Marilyn" in Parade Magazine:<br />"Suppose you're on a game show and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say number 1, and the host, which knows what's behind each door, opens another door, say 3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door number "? Is it to your advantage to switch doors?<br /><br />As far as what this has o do with critical reading and analytical thinking, let me quote from Amazon's page on Von Savant's book: "This book is for those of us whose brains stalled when faced with the threat of "word problems" in math class. Vos Savant shows us how even the most well educated can be semiliterate in the arts of reasoning and problem solving. She illustrates how easily we are duped by "counter-intuitive" problems whose solutions run against the grain of instinct. In part 1, vos Savant analyzes examples of these problems, including the famous "Monty Hall Dilemma" that initiated a deluge of mail from irate mathematicians after she posed it in her Sunday column. Part 2 unveils how easy it is to misunderstand mean-spirited statistics. This section also contains fascinatingly thorough descriptions of every conceivable verbal fallacy--a tour de force to delight the number-impaired. Part 3 is an eye-opening analysis of the ways politicians use statistics, "selective logic," and faulty reasoning to sway our votes. Vos Savant's clear, logical approach to convoluted problems is a tonic for anyone who feels queasy around economics, statistics, word problems, or politicians."<br /><br />I see now that it might have been better had I written this article as a book review... Though, if I did that, I doubt that many would see the relationship from, say, stated radiation levels concerning nuclear accidents with panic, and rational thought.mike in tokyo rogershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04977446676243085409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-70994320843672373122011-05-15T19:25:53.828+09:002011-05-15T19:25:53.828+09:00This is very disingenuous. First, you left out an ...This is very disingenuous. First, you left out an important condition, that the host knows what is behind the doors and must open a ham sandwich door. <br />The 2/3 chance on switch only works with the above condition, which you didn't mention.<br /><br />If the host opens doors at random (possibly revealing the money), which is the way you wrote it, then switching wins half the time.<br /><br />So assuming you just left out that important condition by accident, I'm still not sure how this point relates to the topic of this post. This is one of the world's most famously difficult logical problems, and many of the world's top mathematicians got it wrong at first. If you're going to test people's critical thinking skills, may I suggest that it may be be better not to choose a problem that has stumped Nobel-Prize winners and the world's best mathematicians?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-86994110615802847852011-05-15T19:00:41.563+09:002011-05-15T19:00:41.563+09:00Ha! Ha! Ha! OK. You got me there James. It's a...Ha! Ha! Ha! OK. You got me there James. It's a killer ham sandwich and you are starving!mike in tokyo rogershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04977446676243085409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2207076947655236975.post-87060040902975321892011-05-15T18:52:29.522+09:002011-05-15T18:52:29.522+09:00Actually, you didn't specify what the current ...Actually, you didn't specify what the current going price for a ham sadwich is or how hungry I am, so it's not clear which prize I should be aiming for. ;)<br /><br />I remember hearing this puzzle a long time ago and it got me the first time, but I eventually worked it out.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03875665895670908529noreply@blogger.com