All things about the media, marketing, business, Japan and other musings by Mike in Tokyo Rogers.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Ichiro Ozawa Becomes New Prime Minister of Japan
Today Japan will choose a new Prime Minister. Will it be Naoto Kan or Ichiro Ozawa? How is it possible that, after being so disgraced just a year ago, that Ozawa has a chance of becoming Prime Minister?
It's because Naoto Kan is so incredibly incompetent and inexperienced.
Well, I'm am not inside of these talks but I think I can tell you that Ozawa will be the next Prime Minister of Japan. Why? I gather this because of what I perceive the mood of the mass media and the public at large. Recently, I have been getting a definite negative vibe concerning Kan.
Probably the worst thing for Kan is the poor performance of the Japanese Stock Market recently coupled with the rise of the yen. Throw on top of that Kan's insistence on raising taxes and you have the formula for someone getting booted out really quick.
As the Financial Times reported:
The DPJ shift to policies that boosted consumption was the right move, and an electoral asset. Strange, then, that Mr Kan turned back, fighting this summer’s upper house election on an austerity platform. Child allowances were to be capped, consumption taxes doubled and corporate taxes cut instead. Unsurprisingly, Mr Kan’s proposal went down like a cup of cold rice gruel. Mr Ozawa was vocal in his disapproval. But why did Mr Kan reverse? The kindest explanation is naivety: he fell for the “Japan is the next Greece” story. By contrast, Mr Ozawa’s idea of securitising loans and other assets on the government’s bloated balance sheet sent shivers down the spines of bureaucrats, not to mention the bond market.
I doubt seriously that adding to Japan's balance sheet frightens Japanese politicians. If that were true, then they should have been very afraid when the red ink hit 100% of GDP way back when. Now that it's at 190%, what's the difference in a few extra trillion yen here or there?
The Japanese government's purpose, like the purpose of all government's around the world, is to kick the can down the road and to allow someone else to have to worry about paying the piper....
Thus, as both Kan and Ozawa have Keynesian ideas for fixing the economy, I say that Ozawa's time has come. Kan foolishly says in public that he will raise taxes. Ozawa is against that.
This means that other members of the DPJ worry about their seats in the next election. This will result in Ichiro Ozawa as the next Prime Minister of Japan....
After that, soon Ozawa will fail miserably too, and then, once and for all, the DPJ and Japan will finally be rid of him...
Too bad we can't get rid of the rest of them at the same time.
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Keywords: Ichiro Ozawa, Naoto Kan, election, DPJ
3 comments:
Comments must be succinct & relevant to the story. Comments are checked frequently and abusive, rude or profane comments will be deleted. I’m just one of many bloggers who answer questions online and sometimes for the press. I usually handle questions about Japan, marketing or the economy, so in those areas I’m more likely to make sense and less likely to say something really stupid. If I post something here that you find helpful or interesting, that’s wonderful. This is my personal blog. If you don't like what you have read here then, just like when you go into a restaurant or bar that allows smoking, if you don't like it, there's something at the front that has hinges on it and it is called a "door."
I'm totally disappointed in Kan's constant flip-flopping. One example is that he promised to move the US military out of Okinawa as part of his election platform, then screwed the Okinawans over after his election by unilaterally deciding to keep them there.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if Ozawa can bring the yen back to a reasonable exchange rate. It's doubtful that he give a shit about Okinawa or the Japanese people in general but, at least, can do something to boost the economy...
Dear Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteThanks for a spot-on comment about this entire mess. I, too, was royally pissed off about the US bases mess with Kan and Hatoyama... Sure people don't like Ozawa's "big money politics," but, that's what politics comes down to anyway.
It seems obvious to me that Ozawa is a shoe-in.
If its the GDP that causing the insecurity than look at the numbers in around 2040, GDP looking like 45 trillion, then whats another trillion or two going to matter to a country whose GDP looks like 45 trillion......
ReplyDeleteWe will all be breathing the same AIR wont we...