Showing posts with label Mish. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mish. Show all posts

Monday, October 24, 2011

Linkedin Japan FAIL! Stuff I've Been Thinking About: Video Mashups & I Told You So

Monday morning (Sunday for most people who read this blog). I've got a ton of things to do but here's a few things I've been thinking about... Especially how, even a few days after press release, you can see proof of how messed up a company Linkedin Japan is. Linkedin Japan is a FAIL!


First up, though, before the bashing begins, for your enjoyment, a very cool video Mash-up by Hexstatic of Nancy Sinatra's sixties smash hit "These Boots Were Made For Walking"



And speaking of getting walked on... It seems that is what's happening in Europe right now. It seems the Euro is collapsing right in front of our very eyes. Also, if you read between the lines, I'm getting the impression that we could see the bankruptcy of Greece very soon (as soon as this week or next?) Read this from Mish Shedlock, EU Finance Ministers Decide to Force Banks to Take Bigger Greek Bond Losses, Recaptialize by $140 Billion; Amount Insufficient, Few Other Details



The picture in Greece, whose troubles kicked off the crisis almost two years ago, is bleaker than ever. A new report from Athens' international debt inspectors -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- proved that a preliminary deal for a second package of rescue loans reached in July is already obsolete.

The report showed that in the past three months Greece's economic situation has deteriorated so dramatically that for the bank deal to remain in place, the official sector would have to provide some euro252 billion ($347 billion) in loans. Alternatively, to keep official loans at euro109 billion ($150 billion), banks would have to accept cuts of about 60 percent to the value of their Greek bonds.
….
100 Million Euros is insufficient. The IMF pegged the amount between 100 million and 200 million. There is absolutely no reason to suspect the minimum is needed. Indeed, there is every reason to expect 400 million euros is insufficient.
….
I believe 400 million Euros will prove way insufficient once Portugal, then Spain, then Italy get into trouble.

Read more at Mish.

Like I said, I think we could see the bankruptcy of Greece any day now. If that happens, all bets are off and it's every man (family) for itself. I think people would be wise to draw out a good sum of money from the banks and have it at home for a few weeks just to be safe until we can see what is going to happen. I fear a "bank holiday" where it might not be possible to withdraw money (or possibly even use credit cards) from banks for a few days or even a week or two (or more?)

I always follow my own advice and I think I've done pretty well. I always mess up dates, though... But I predicted a bad situation in Autumn on 2011 and, well, here it is, autumn. Please refer to: Japan's Financial Armageddon is Coming in 60 Days?

I warned people in October of 2008 to buy gold and silver and to stock up on food (click the links for proof). At that time, gold was $724.08 an ounce (today gold is $1562.30) and silver was $9.11 an ounce (today silver stands at $47.40).



If you had taken my advice, you would have easily more than doubled your investment in gold and taken over a 520% profit on silver. It's still not too late to get into gold and silver but a price correction is coming so wait a bit.* There will be no price correction on food. Stock up now, while you can. 



After the big Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, when the stores shelves were bare for a week or so (and no one knew at the time how things were going to turn out on the food and water situation) my family was fine; we had 6 months of food and water, enough for 5 people, stocked up and ready to go. When people panicked and ran away from Tokyo or when they were fighting for parking spaces at the local grocery store, or fighting for bottles of water, I only watched and shook my head in disbelief.

How can people be so gullible and foolish? How can people be so negligent and irresponsible not to be prepared?
…..
Let me give you fair warning again. Especially if you live in Japan: 

1) Store up enough water for at least 2 months (6 months preferable)
2) Fill your bathtub with water every night (if water stops you can use for cleaning)
3) Today or this week, buy at least 2 months of canned food (6 months preferable)
4) It is still not too late! Start saving money every month by buying gold and silver. If you have some savings, take 33% of it out of the bank and buy gold. Take the other 33% and keep it at  safe place at home.

It looks like we are headed for some really rough times. Better be prepared to stay out of the way.


The point I am ultimately making is that of course no one can predict the future but just because of that fact not being prepared is just plain foolish. I'm sure that there were many people in Tohoku before the earthquake and tsunami who could make the same claim that "No one could have predicted the future" so that's why many did not have food or water or the means to escape (same as many in Tokyo)... But this is not about predicting the future, this is about protecting yourselves and your family.

If you think this is about predicting the future, then use that same logic next time you buy auto, car, fire or life insurance. Don't need them, right? No one can predict the future.

While I mention Greece, another curious thing about the situation there is that it is not being mentioned on the MSM. There's lots about demonstrations in the USA, where things are peaceful for the most part, but in places like Greece, where the sh*t is about to hit the fan? Not a peep.

I had been looking at many videos on Youtube and others showing some very heavy fighting between rioters and police. I wish I would have bookmarked them. This one, though, give a good idea. This is not a friendly party. 


The most worrisome point about the situation in Greece is that the government needs the police and military to stand by them to protect them from and increasingly angry and militant civilian gathering, yet, at the same time, even the Greek police and civil servants are furious about getting pay cuts and massive slashes to their pensions. I wonder how long until they switch sides?

What would that mean for Greece and the other countries in immediate danger (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland?)

And, finally, I see the ridiculous announcement from Linkedin that they finally "launched their Japanese site". Well, that's one big strike against them; they're lying. The service was actually launched sometime before May of 2010. 

Why is that important for Linkedin? Well, when dealing or considering new companies trying to penetrate the Japanese market, please refer to How New Companies Can Succeed in Japan and How They Fail

How to correctly handle a new product or service release? (in Japan)

A new company/product/service will need to appoint somebody in Japan to handle PR for them in Japan and work with that company to make a plan. 

A necessary part of any good plan of attack would be that the representatives in Japan arrange meetings with major media at least 1 - 2 weeks before Japanese release day, as pre-press release. This is critical.

If this sort of ground-work is not fully prepared by the company and their reps in Japan, I strongly suggest that the company postpone the release of the product/service (and fire their  representatives and hire a competent company) and then get properly prepared. If this sort of pre-press release is done correctly, the Japanese media will then follow-up and prepare and study the circumstances of the product/service and company so that they may be able to publish and provide better information for the Japanese audience (don't forget that the Japanese media are competing with each other, too, to provide up-to-date concise information, so this has to be done. No short-cuts here). This is critical for the success of any new company in Japan.  

Even after years of repeated failures by various companies, to this very day, foreign companies come to Japan and repeat the mistakes Pepsi Cola and Seven-Up made decades ago. Some recent examples are Linkedin; E-Bay Japan, Google.jp, and a few others. (I strongly suspect Sugarsync is about to make the same mistake too!)

Take, for example, Linked-in. Linked-in came out with a Japanese version quite a while back but no one here in Japan uses it because no one knows about it; they had no local representation; no pre-press release information. 

Kind of shocking, when you think about it; a supposedly forward thinking company coming to Japan and making such an amateurish mistake. 

Well, Linkedin made that mistake. I also am quite familiar with this as I wrote a letter to Linkedin twice in early 2010 offering them a partnership with some companies that suggested tying up with Sony and placing the Linkedin software with all new Vaio computers sold. I sent them the letter twice. Twice, no response. Chuckle. Now, they've realized almost 1.5 years later that no one uses their Japanese language product (and probably won't). They blew a golden opportunity to tie up with one of the biggest companies in Japan... Now, what are they going to do?

You don't penetrate the Japanese market on the cheap and you usually have only one chance to get it right.

Let me make a prediction that I will stand by completely: Linkedin Japan will be a flop and failure along the lines of E-Bay in Japan.

Well, it's the start of another week. Keep positive. Write down your goals and smile.

The whole world loves happy people.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Genius Blogs and Get's 100's of Volunteers, Lawyers & Web Designers in 5 Days!



I've written before that I look up to Mish Shedlock as an inspiration as to how to write and run a no-frills but incredibly interesting blog. I sincerely think that anyone who is interested in blogging needs to check out his site. I think, Mish's Global Economic Analysis is one of the best 3 sites on the Internet! 


(Updates below) 




Currently, Mish is running a campaign, looking for volunteers, and he's gotten 100's of them in only a few days! That's astounding! 


Mish has been writing and blogging for years and he often updates his blog 3 times a day!  (I've done that, as a test, for 3 months straight in 2010 and let me tell you that that is a tough job!)


Mish does it consistently everyday and has been doing it for years. It is this kind of dedication that has built him a massive following. I bet he doesn't realize it, but he is an Internet marketing genius.


In a recent blog, Mish asked for volunteers to help him recall the governor of Illinois! No joke. Talk about taking on an almost impossible task! 


Yeah, well, maybe almost impossible, but if anyone could pull this off, it is Mish Shedlock.  


Mish is so dedicated and so well respected that when blogged about this campaign and asked for volunteers in only 5 short days he has gotten hundreds of volunteers. He has even gotten lawyers to volunteer!!! Now, that is amazing! I thought lawyers were cold-blooded sharks who only cared about cash in hand!




Last Sunday Mish wrote


I have exciting news this morning. I am launching a campaign to recall Illinois governor Pat Quinn.
This is not a frivolous effort. It is a serious undertaking and one in which I intend to see to the end. It will take hard work and lots of volunteers but we will be successful.

I need volunteers to ...
  • Gather signatures
  • Talk to state legislative representatives to get them on board
  • Provide legal help
  • Design a website
  • Help with advertising

I will pay for website hosting and domain names.

We need to be successful because Governor Quinn has plans that will destroy Illinois.
Will You Stand Up To The Injustice?


There are many tasks to be performed and I will need volunteers from every county to gather signatures. I estimate we need about 520,000 signatures. My goal is to get 700,000.

If you can volunteer, time, web design, advertising, legal help, or any kind of general assistance, I would appreciate it.



The campaign seems to me to be doing fabulously. Today Mish added:


I wrote the above call to action post on Sunday. Since then I have had over 100 volunteers including 10 web designers, a lawyer, and numerous business owners. Work on a website is underway. I have secured the appropriate domain names. One business owner who employs about 100 people graciously volunteered services of his legal department.


Like I said, Mish is an expert at this. Not only is he an economic genius, he is a wizard at using the new media to get his message out. The proof is in the pudding. 


Of course, any good blogger needs good topics and Mish finds them all the time. This current campaign to recall the governor of Illinois is Mish's idea, but the absurd actions of the governor himself give a fertile mind like Mish's ton's of great ideas.


Get this: The governor of Illinois wants to raise personal income taxes 67%!


In Mish's own words; Tax insanity in Illinois is now official. Governor Pat Quinn signed off on a 67% hike in personal income taxes and a 46% hike in corporate taxes the moment the bill hit his desk.


Now Mish is working to recall the governor! 


Unnamed Illinois businessman's reaction to Gov. Pat Quinn's 
plan to raise personal income taxes by 67% 
and corporate taxes by 46%


I know this is serious business but I couldn't help laughing at the extreme stupidity of the governor of Illinois. If you are from Illinois, or live there currently, you won't find this funny at all... If you are in another state or country and watching this insanity from afar, then this is spectacularly hilarious! 


Mr. Governor, all I can say is that when the Japanese are laughing at you (unless you are a Hollywood stand-up comedian) then you have problems... Usually jokes don't translate well into other languages, but you are a joke that will be understood the world over! 


Read Mish's take on this tax hike here.


Thank God there's people like Mish running around! Go get 'em Mish. See more on Mish's campaign here! Volunteer if you can!


Update 1: I wrote this blog 12 hours ago. In the meantime, Mish has now gotten over 200 volunteers! 


Update 2: This message was sent to me by Mish himself:

Eddie & JoBo Show - WLS 890 - 8:05 PM Saturday - I 'm on Discussing Governor Quinn Recall


Mike,

I received an email moments ago from Eddie Volkman at WLS AM 890 Chicago asking me to be on for a live 18-20 minute segment tonight. The discussion will be on Governor Quinn, the tax hikes, how those tax hikes will impact the state of Illinois, and what we can do about it.
Hey Mike...

I'm Eddie Volkman from "The Eddie & JoBo Show" now on WLS-AM, 7-9pm Saturdays. Wondering if we could get you on with us to talk about your Quinn recall. The whole tax thing is obviously a huge topic right now and listeners are fuming. We'll be talking about it in the 7 o'clock hour tonight. Sorry for short notice but I came across your blog and it's quite intriguing! Thanks!

Eddie Volkman
Click here to listen live

Call in 312-591-8900
Or text "WLSAM" to 68683
or tweet to @wlsam890

Tune in, it should be fun.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://player.streamtheworld.com/_players/citadel/?sid=1044 

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Japanese Politics, Yen vs. Dollar and the Price of Gold

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers


Today's Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention into the price of the Japanese yen versus the dollar now explains why Naoto Kan was kept on as president of the DPJ and will continue as Prime Minister of Japan: It was all a back-door deal. Wheeling and dealing as usual.


"Scratch my back and I'll scratch yours."


All this time Kan was reluctant to prop up the yen and then, suddenly, he wins the vote and the next day, his so-called "principles" are out the door and the BOJ jumps into yen intervention head-first for the first time in six-years (after it was proven it didn't work the first time).  Well, at least that explains why he was kept on.


My favorite economic blog in the world, Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, has an excellent
analysis on the idiocy of the BOJ intervening in the price of the Japanese Yen versus the US dollar.


Mish cynically writes of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention:


It has been proven time and time again that currency intervention does not work. Yet, somehow it is "good for the government to show its strong stance". (Referring to foolish remarks by investment strategist Takao Hattori at Mitsubishi UFJ bank).


He also adds later in the same article:


If the Yen does drop in a sustained way, it will not be because of the intervention, but rather because the Yen had outrun fundamentals and was simply ready to drop.


Even though Japan had been complaining that a strong yen was hurting their exports, records show that Japan actually had strong exports in July 2010:


JOHN VAIL, CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT

"Clearly the U.S. is not going to be too friendly towards it although they may not argue too much about it in that Japan is a big customer for its Treasury securities."

"I'm not sure we are going to see a major weakening of the macro statistics in Japan, but if we do that would obviously help weaken the yen, but exports were quite strong in July both on a nominal and real basis so it's a bit of a quandary for Japan."

"But the biggest problem for Japan is not the U.S. cross rates, it's the Korean won, and the Korean won has just been ridiculously weak. Yet G20 officials have yet to really pressure Korea on this at all, which I think is really to Japan's detriment."



I highly recommend reading Mish's entire blog on the subject as he is a much better expert on this than I, but I want to point out something here that is missed by most people as to what happened to the price of gold, in yen, immediately after this market intervention. And how government intervention - any government intervention - distorts the marketplace and creates problems for investors and business men alike.


Today, Sept 15, 2010, the opening price per gram of gold was ¥3426 per gram. This was before the BOJ intervention in the price of the yen versus the dollar.


This price was realized after strong gold gains in New York overnight where gold closed at $1268.70 on Sept. 14, 2010. This created the gold price of ¥3426 a gram as stated in the previous paragraph. At that time the yen was trading at ¥82.27 per dollar.


Then, at about 10:30 am Tokyo time, the BOJ intervened and the price of the yen dropped from ¥82.27 per dollar to nearly ¥85 per dollar. This caused the Nikkei 225 to soar.


It also caused the price of gold to jump too. 


In just a moment, the day's price of gold went from ¥3426 a gram to ¥3461 a gram... 


Now, most gold owners would celebrate at this information, but a closer look reveals that this is not all that great and that, even the supposed "experts" think that this intervention won't matter as market fundaments are what's driving the price of the yen.


As the NPR reported:

"The effect from Japan's solo intervention won't last very long. We have to see how the U.S. and European monetary authorities would react," said Yuji Kameoka, chief forex strategist at Daiwa Institute.
The intervention came a day after Prime Minister Naoto Kan held onto power after fending off a challenge from veteran lawmaker Ichiro Ozawa for the ruling party presidency. Ozawa had advocated currency intervention, but Kan had until now been reluctant to act.
So now, one again, things make perfect sense. Ozawa was willing to intervene in supporting the yen. Kan wasn't. Ozawa was a big money politician who had a dirty image; Kan wasn't... Ozawa played the sneaky back-door smoke-filled room deals; Kan was supposedly a "new face" and not a part of the "Good Old Boys" ....


But that's all gone now. 


Kan and his people got the votes they wanted by promising to prop up the yen... It's business as usual in Japan, folks.


The politicians in this country and even the Bank of Japan are not concerned about the well-being of the average Japanese person. They will do whatever they can to keep the Ponzi scheme going for as long as they can... The can has been kicked down the road once again....


A few months ago, Kan said he wouldn't prop up the yen because he was worried that, due to debt, Japan would become like Greece... But, here we are.


Thank God that these politicians look out for number one... Thank God they will do whatever it takes to get elected....


The Japanese people be damned.


PS: Normally I would be thrilled with a ¥81 a gram rise in the price of gold... But when it is due to price manipulation of currency... What should anyone be?


----------


Keywords: gold, Ponzi, Ichiro Ozawa, Kan, Mish, Marketing Japan

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Debt! Who is Better Off? Japan or USA?

By Mike in Tokyo Rogers


When it comes to public debt and the coming economic turmoil, who is better off Japan, or the USA?


I received a letter from a friend who asked me this question. It read;


Just a quick question. When it comes to debt, I wonder which is really worse off. I read somewhere that Japan's debt basically comes from the Japanese public, where as the US debt is from various countries. Therefore, when analyzed who is worse off?  (Sic)


My answer: Thanks for the question. But, please do not get the debt issue confused. Japan's debt is not "from" the Japanese public. Nor is USA debt "from" various countries. The debt is Japanese or USA government created. The governments created this debt through public spending on projects, war and social welfare with money they do not have. 


Remember that the government does not have any money.  The government can only take money from business and the public by borrowing it or taxing the people (they can also print and debase the currency which is a backdoor tax on the public)... Later, someone has to pay back this debt.. In the case of Japan, the public bought the debt as investments... In the case of the USA, foreign governments have bought the debt as investments...


Regardless of the confusion as to who created this debt, I understand the basic question and think it is a great one.  Instead of me just making my remarks I decided to ask someone who I definitely look up to for advice when it comes to this kind of subject and that is my friend, Mike "Mish" Shedlock. Mish Shedlock runs one of the most-read economic blogs in the world and is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management.


I slightly rewrote the question to Mike:


When it comes to debt, I wonder which is really worse off; the USA or Japan? Japan's debt is basically held by the Japanese public, where as the US debt is owned by China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, etc... (various countries).  Therefore, when analyzed, who are worse off? The average Japanese or the average American? 


Mike's answer: 


Japan is worse off - Their problem hits first (Japan already has debt at 190% of GDP - USA debt 87.6% as of May 15, 2010). Also Japan is much worse off because of demographics – a much older population... Timing is the key! The USA actually has some time to do something (even if we know they won’t) 

Me: To sum up; the USA is better off than Japan, for now, because Japan's debt percentage to GDP NOW is larger and because the percentage of the Japanese population that is no longer in the workforce is larger.  

Another person wrote and asked me "What should we do?" Now, that's a great question too! (realize that most people still, to this day, are not thinking about one or two years into the future when this entire situation is really going to start hitting home).

I answered:  

So, what do I recommend? Get out of debt, live within your means... Fight anyway that you can government spending and increased taxation. Get the government warfare and welfare state off our backs. Allow the free market to shake out the sick parts of our economy...

Own gold and silver and oil. Try to become self-employed or to start your own business for tax purposes.



If you want good advice on this subject... I suggest reading Mish Shedlock everyday! http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Keywords: Mish, public debt, USA,

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