Groupon Stock Holders! Head For the Exits!

In what, I'm sure will be the second to last post I ever make about Groupon, and how much of a dog company I think it is (the last post will be a "I told you so" when Groupon becomes a penny stock), I'd like to show you Groupon stock performance over the past two days.


Pretty shocking stuff. Especially if you own shares in this company!


On Monday, Nov. 21, 2011. The Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) had a bad day dropping 249 points or -2.1% to finish at 11,454. The NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) closed 1.92% lower at 2,529.14. On the other hand, Groupon (GRPN) had an even worse day by dropping almost 10% and another nearly 1% after-hours! See chart:

Today, Tuesday Nov. 22, 2011 (USA time) it wasn't as bad as yesterday's market saw the DJI down 53.59 or -0.49% to finish at 11,493.72. The NASDAQ closed 1.86% lower at 2,521. But! Groupon was one of the top three losers for the day dropping a whopping 3.51 or -14.89% to close at nearly their IPO price. The final closing was 20.07.

Head for the life rafts! If anyone knows where or how they can short GRPN shares, please comment and let us all know. Opportunities of a lifetime, like this one, don't come very often.

As I have written over and over before, a business model built on SPAM mail isn't a good business model at all. They should have built a portal. They should have taken Google's $6 billion dollar offer.

I'll make a prediction here: GRPN stock price will be under $5.00 by December 15, 2012 (maybe $1.00?) So if you want to be stupid and "BUY" then wait for their 60% off Groupon share price coupons! (Or, as Karl Denninger says, "There's crazy and then there's really crazy!") 

UPDATE: Zerohedge writes, "Groupoff - Groupon back to IPO price":

As of this moment, everyone who has bought and held GRPN stock since the IPO price is at best flat, and almost certainly at a massive loss, as only a few banks were allotted shares at the $20.00 offering price, which were quickly flipped to subsequent greater fools. As of this moment, GRPN is back to the IPO price or precisely $20.00. We expect once this is taken out for the one way Grouponzi Red Light Special to fair value, somewhere around $0.00, to take a few months at most.

PS: I have made some really good bucks buying and selling stocks over these 35 years... Actually, only three. I've only ever bought three times. I won big three times. Great opportunities only come once every ten years or so (unless you have insider information) one day soon I will write about these exploits. I found these chances of a lifetime just simply from reading the news. You can too. Sometimes things are just painfully obvious. As a loser, Groupon was one of them.

Had I been able to invest huge money instead of my piddling amounts, on the good ones....I might have been rich!

Or as my wife says:

UPDATE 2: Groupon was the #2 biggest drop on the entire NASDAQ today according to Yahoo Finance:

NEW YORK (AP) -- A look at the 10 biggest percentage decliners on Nasdaq at the close of trading:

School Specialty Inc. fell 26.4 percent to $5.17.

Groupon Inc. fell 14.9 percent to $20.07.

First Clover Leaf Financial Corp. fell 11.6 percent to $5.74.

Viasystems Group fell 10.9 percent to $15.77.

ID Systems Inc. fell 9.7 percent to $5.14.

Mackinac Financial Corp. fell 9.6 percent to $5.00.

Technical Communications Corp. fell 9.6 percent to $7.17.

Forbes Energy Services Ltd. fell 9.2 percent to $5.35.

KIT Digital Inc. fell 9.2 percent to $9.52.

Lihua Intl fell 8.8 percent to $5.36.

UPDATE 3: Another from Zerohedge:

Yet another fatal flaw in GRPN's business model is revealed to the sheeple IPO buyers.

Bakery Burned in Groupon Deal for 102000 Cupcakes

‎ - International Business Times

Japanese Government: These People are Just Plain Nuts

We're F'ed. There, I said it. I used the "F" word.

What did I tell you? Exactly one week ago, I complained that those stupid idiots (I do have harsher words but this is a "family fun" blog) in the Japanese government threw away $50 some billion dollars trying to support the rising yen. In Japanese Central Bank Throws Away a Billion Dollars Again, I wrote:


This morning when I woke up I checked the financial markets, gold, silver and, of course, the dollar yen rate.


I was somewhat surprised to see the yen at ¥76.9-something to the US dollar. A hour or two later, the yen had dropped to its current ¥78.9 per US dollar. Obviously the Japanese Central Bank intervened and bought a bunch of dollars.

Fools. When will they ever learn? They keep throwing our hard earned tax money down the drain to stop the yen's rise, but it is all in vain as the yen's appreciation continues....


Why do these fools keep doing this? When will they ever learn that these interventions cannot and will not stop any long term trend? 


Gee, you think that, after decades of this sort of failed action repeated over and over that these analysts would figure it out? Gee... I guess they really go out on a limb and stick their necks out when they make statements like, "We don't believe today's action will explicity change the trend." 

What!? After decades of this sort of action and the inevitable failures of those actions, why is it  difficult to say straight out that "this Bank of Japan intervention will fail like all the others have before it."

They intervened in the yen at ¥76.9, spending some $50 billion dollars. The yen rose to over ¥80 to the US dollar. Now, today, exactly one week later, we're right back where we started. The yen today, as of 4:11 am August 11, 2011 Japan time, is at ¥76.81... 

Those fricking jerks in the government just threw away, for the umpteenth time, $50 billion dollars of hard earned tax payer money. That's your money and my money! God!@%>?! idiots! 


Now they are considering doing this again!? What the f*ck is wrong with these stupid people?


Yahoo reports:


Japanese policymakers voiced growing alarm on Tuesday as the yen scaled highs seen before last week's intervention and global stock markets crumbled under mounting fears of a new financial crisis. Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda on several occasions repeated the mantra that he was watching markets closely as the dollar slid below 77 yen, under levels that spurred Tokyo to take action on August 4. He indicated that authorities would wait to see market reaction to U.S. Federal Reserve decisions later in the day (2:15 p.m. EDT) before deciding whether to act again.


What!? they are thinking about doing this again!? WTF!? God! I'm so pissed off about this I want to scream! How many times do they do this over and over and over and the same thing happens over and over until they finally learn? If history is any judge then we know that they never learn! 


The only thing that does make me happy this morning is the news that, finally, it looks like we will get rid of that moron prime minister Kan...


Reuters reports:


Prospects grew on Wednesday that Prime Minister Naoto Kan would resign this month, setting the stage for the selection of Japan's sixth leader in five years as the country struggles to rebuild from a massive tsunami, forge a new energy policy in the wake of a nuclear crisis and fix tattered state finances. With two key bills that Kan wants to make into law before he goes looking likely to be enacted before parliament's session ends on Aug. 31, Japanese media said Kan's Democratic Party was planning to vote as early as Aug. 28 to select a new leader. Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who favours paying for bulging social security costs by raising the 5 percent sales tax, and like Kan sees reining in ballooning public debt as policy priority, is mooted as a leading contender.


Noda!? The guy who keeps recommending that Japan buy dollars to lower the value of the yen!? Are you kidding me? No. Can't be. I just can't believe that. I've died and gone to hell. I refuse to accept it.


Well, Noda or not, if we can judge from the past, the next guy who will torture the Japanese nation as prime minister will be just as much of a dolt as Kan. I think Noda will be even worse. Now that's hard to imagine!


Too bad Japan can't be like Belgium.. They haven't had a government in almost a year... Some people get all the luck!


Maybe I'll move to Belgium.

Japan's Financial Armageddon is Coming in 60 Days?

Is the financial Armageddon coming soon? Many people are now warning that it is inevitable. I agree. It may not be in 60 days, but I think it is coming Autumn 2011. I'm not sure, but things are lining up poorly so I think you had better get prepared. This is a warning.


People should listen to my warnings. I warned people in October of 2008 to buy gold and silver and to stock up on food (click the links for proof). At that time, gold was $724.08 an ounce (today gold is $1562.30) and silver was $9.11 an ounce (today silver stands at $47.40).


If you had taken my advice, you would have easily more than doubled your investment in gold and taken over a 520% profit on silver. It's still not too late to get into gold and silver but a price correction is coming so wait a bit.* There will be no price correction on food. Stock up now, while you can. 


*Note: A few hours after the posting of this article (check the dates and times) the price of silver dropped almost 10%.


After the big Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, when the stores shelves were bare for a week or so (and no one knew at the time how things were going to turn out on the food and water situation) my family was fine; we had 6 months of food and water, enough for 5 people, stocked up and ready to go. When people panicked and ran away from Tokyo or when they were fighting for parking spaces at the local grocery store, or fighting for bottles of water, I only watched and shook my head in disbelief.


How can people be so gullible and foolish? How can people be so negligent and irresponsible not to be prepared?

The repercussions of the Japan earthquake and tsunami followed by the nuclear accident has created shock waves throughout the world. Throw that on top of the soon-to-come collapse of the Euro...

Either preceded or followed by the collapse of the US dollar.... 

A lot of people predicted an economic calamity after the earthquake and tsunami. But, now some are saying it didn't happen. The fact is that the earthquake and tsunami are blips on the screen in the overall picture of the world economy.... But taken together with the information contained in the videos above, and they stat to cause one to consider.


Consider the Euro zone and the US dollar - along with Japan's aging problem and public debt problems - in the context of the repercussions for the business world of the Japan disaster. For a small example of how the Japan calamity is affecting foreign nations and companies, consider the fact that Japanese cars manufacturers have closed many of their plants as they are unable to obtain parts. 


On initial inspection, this doesn't seem to be such a problem. But these plants, and including Japanese plants in the USA, employ tens of thousands of people. Now, what about the satellite businesses that deal with cars? The list is long, but here's two easy ones; Tire makers or service stands? What about other businesses that cater to auto worker employees? How about them? Home manufacturers, clothes makers, shoes manufacturers, the entertainment sector, banks, credit card companies, etc., etc.? 


Now, consider the fact that nearly ever company must file their quarterly business report, well, every quarter. That means that the earthquake occurred on March 11... Let's just use March 30th as an easy calculation... This means that all of these corporations will show the effect of the Japan disaster - added to an already overloaded world economic crisis - and you just might have one more straw added to the camel's back... Could it be the straw that breaks the camel's back?


I don't think so. But throw on the extremely high probability of a Greek, Irish and Portuguese default on public debt and the ground swell rumors now abounding that Spain and Italy are next ( and are "Too big to bail") then you have a serious problem.


Let me give you fair warning again. Especially if you live in Japan: 


1) Store up enough water for at least 2 months (6 months preferable)
2) Fill your bathtub with water every night (if water stops you can use for cleaning)
3) Today or this week, buy at least 2 months of canned food (6 months preferable)
4) It is still not too late! Start saving money every month by buying gold and silver. If you have some savings, take 33% of it out of the bank and buy gold. Take the other 33% and keep it at  safe place at home.


It looks like we are headed for some really rough times. Better be prepared to stay out of the way.


If you want to find the best places to buy gold and silver, search those keywords on this blog's search function. I've warned people so many times up until now, that I'm tired of linking to it over and over.


Will people pay attention this time? If history is any guide, the answer is "No!" 

Three Short News Stories About How Messed Up Japan's Finances Are

Here's three news stories on Japan this morning that just made me roll my eyes. The first one shows how Japan's public debt hit new highs... This causes the incompetents in the Japanese government to panic and try to throw a budget together somehow....


From The Wall Street Journal: 


Japan's outstanding public debt hit a record Y919.151 trillion at the end of last year, the Finance Ministry said Thursday, likely fueling concerns over the nation's fiscal health and adding to a sense of urgency within the government to quickly formulate a tax hike plan. The ministry's quarterly data showed public debt rose 1.1% from the end of September, reaching a level equivalent to 194% of Japan's nominal gross domestic product for the fiscal year ended March 2010. Central government liabilities tracked by the data include government bonds, short-term debts called financial bills and other kinds of borrowed money. The picture of Japan's fiscal house gets even worse if the long-term debt of local governments worth around Y200 trillion is also taken into account.

Writer's rendition of Japanese PM Naoto Kan

Like I've written about numerous times, these idiots in the government never have the idea to cut the budget. All they ever think about is raising taxes. But the people are taxed out already. More taxes are not the answer. Cutting expenditures is and the Japanese people are starting to get fed up with high taxes. There is a movement afoot to do something about them too.


The Economist reports:


It was hardly a "mad-as-hell" moment, but still. On learning on February 6th that he had won a landslide re-election victory as mayor of Nagoya, one of Japan's biggest industrial cities, Takashi Kawamura put on a pair of black rubber boots while a small group of supporters threw buckets of cold water over his head. Hours later, with a nod to America's tax-cutting rebels, Mr Kawamura declared that a kind of tea party had been born in Nagoya. He sat alongside his political ally, Hideaki Omura, who on the same day thrashed his rivals for the governorship of the surrounding prefecture of Aichi, home to Toyota. It was hard to judge how serious they were, not least because, dressed in anoraks, they looked like the Two Ronnies, a 1970s British comedy duo. "This is a citizen's revolution," Mr Omura declared.


Finally, as a result of these problems, and how the government never tables any ideas as to how to cut expenditures and only raise taxes, I predicted how current Japanese prime minister Naoto Kan will be out of office by the end of June.


Bloomberg Reports:

Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan's inability to break a stalemate over budget legislation threatens to make him the fifth straight premier to last no more than a year and end efforts to rein in the world's largest public debt. Kan has been unable to persuade opposition lawmakers to agree on financing bills for his record 92.4 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion) budget that begins in April, 44.3 trillion yen of which must be funded by government bonds. Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda last week said Japan's economy faces "the risk of economic slowdown" if parliament fails to move. Sometimes I get complaints from readers saying that I don't specifically state what Japan's government should cut from their budget... My friend's, there are a million things that could be cut. I would begin with something like a 10% ~ 20% across the board cut. Here's is some information for you. Where should we cut? I think we could cut everything by at least 10% across the board and still be fine (10% probably would only buy us a year or two's time!) Where should we cut? You decide. Have a look:  I searched and found this in English for you. It is highlights of the Japanese budget of 2009 & 2010 from Japan's Ministry of Finance. Especially look at page 2: We can definitely cut military expenditures. According to Wikipedia as of 2007 Japan is #7 in the world for military expenditures.  (We spend more than 0.8% of GDP on the military) Spending in 2010:  ¥47,903,000,000,000 (at ¥80 to the dollar) that's about $58,680,000,000. When we have the US military umbrella and the USA spends more than the rest of the world combined, why is Japan spending all this money? How about cutting that into half? Cut military pensions too Overseas Development? ¥682,000,000,000  that's  $8,350,000,000... Yeah, 15.7 of Japanese are under poverty line according to NY Times but we're throwing money away to other countries. How about cutting that to zero?  Further down below, on the same page, you'll see ¥5,196,800,000,000  ($63,658,000,000) for "miscellaneous." Yes, this is the category that our politicians get into scandals about every year for having geisha parties and lighting up the town. How about cutting all politician's staff and budgets by 40%? I could go on and on. Check top of page 4. A ¥13,000 allowance for every child!? About $160.... Morons! Why don't they just cut our taxes rather than just giving us our money back? Remember when former US president Bush did this crap? A lousy $160 per child? I can get twice that for a kidon the black market! Of course, I am only joking. Too bad this debt problem here is Japan is not a joke. Thanks to News on Japan