You've got to wonder how people, who are so clueless to even their own industry, get into management positions.
But, come to think of it, actually, you and I don't have to wonder; someone wondered about it long ago and wrote a book on it in the 1970s. It was all explained in the seminal book, The Peter Principle. That book explained the phenomenon of how, in a hierarchy, everyone rises to their top level of incompetence. Then because they are incompetent, they remain in that position, unable to advance or, because of politics, be demoted.
The Peter Principle is a belief that, in an organization where promotion is based on achievement, success, and merit, that organization's members will eventually be promoted beyond their level of ability. The principle is commonly phrased, "Employees tend to rise to their level of incompetence." In more formal parlance, the effect could be stated as: employees tend to be given more authority until they cannot continue to work competently.
Yep. That's it.
Regular readers of this blog will know that I have railed on incompetent management at broadcasting stations for years. Just to prove that even a broken clock is right twice a day, almost 4 years ago, I wrote (on July 24, 2010) in One More Phase in the Shattering of Mainstream Media:
I rode the Tokyo subway today and saw a sign inside the car that notified the passengers that as of July 24, 2011, terrestrial television stations will no longer broadcast analogue signals in Japan and will finally make the switch to digital.
This signals the final nail in the coffin of many of the FM radio stations in this country and the collapse of TV Tokyo and TBS.
I predict that *****FM will either be bankrupt or sold to a new owner by 2014 and TV Tokyo will be in the same situation: insolvent or absorbed by another company by 2016.
I picked the first one correctly (polite applause here). The FM station was sold to another company in the summer of 2012. My prediction came true two years ahead of schedule.
(TV Tokyo share price was around ¥4,400 at that time. Today, TV Tokyo Holdings shares run at ¥1768 - a rise of over ¥800 from the 2011 lows - due to Abenomics?)
I haven't been writing about these stations recently, but a while ago I had a meeting with management at a broadcasting station that just made my head spin. The boss of the station said to me in an incredulous manner,
"Mike! We have to do something to get people back to listening to the car radio... Did you know that Toyota stopped putting radios in cars? Did you know that??"
Simply astounding! Doesn't this manager read business publications at all?
It was in 2007 that Toyota had publicly announced that they were phasing out analogue radio in the automobiles within three years and that they would no longer be standard equipment in 2011 (that was two years ago!) Taking that obvious clue, I even blogged three years ago that the future of radio lay in the hands of, not the stations, but Toyota. How could a station manager, almost seven years later, just be finding this out?
The future of FM radio
doesn't lay in what they broadcast or how they up the ante of quality of
content (but, of course, it will always be a competition between stations for
dwindling audience and sponsorship dollars)...
The future of FM radio
depends on what Toyota does.
That's right. Toyota is the
one who decides what is going to happen. In my opinion, it is obvious that FM
is is serious trouble and that we are now witnessing the end of an era;
and it's happening, in slow motion, right in front of our eyes.
But, don't take my word for
it, decide for yourself. Let me explain further...
Think about this: Where do
most people listen to FM radio? In cars, right?
The Japanese government and
all the big manufacturers in this country, Sony, Panasonic, etc. (who, by the
way, all have an incestuous relationship with each other and Toyota in stock
holdings) are pushing for the digital conversion big time. These manufacturers
need their flagging fortunes to get an injection of sales and profits that new
broadcasting and new equipment will generate. Digital equipment costs anywhere
from $500 - $2,000 (USD) a set. The Japanese manufacturers want and need for
the Japanese public to go whole-hog into digital broadcasting. They need the
public to dispose of their analogue equipment and buy the new digital
equipment... (By the way, a cursory check of analogue equipment at Bic Camera
the other day - what little I could find - showed that all the analogue
products were all manufactured outside of Japan).
If digital broadcasting is
a failure in this country, then it's going to hurt Japanese manufacturing for a
very long time... The analogue equipment I saw was all manufactured in
Malaysia, Indonesia, and I found some from Taiwan (which was surprising).
Now, how does Toyota fit
into this equation?
Imagine your car dashboard.
It has a GPS, CD player, and television/radio set all built together. Most
people have an analogue device (with terrible TV reception!) From July 2011
there will be no cars that come with that device. They will all be digital.
After July 2011, on your dashboard, you will have a digital GPS,
Internet, digital TV and digital radio. Want to do Social
Media, YouTube, Twitter, U-Stream, blog? Got you covered. Need to
Google or Yahoo search? Sure. When you need traffic conditions, just a click on
your GPS will give you up to the minute details on traffic and road conditions.
All the TV channels? No problem. Throw on top of that 6 digital radio channels
and, of course, a CD player and probably an iPod connection, and you have the
next generation of car entertainment system.
Now where does that leave radio in the equation? Especially when you consider the fact that radio, unlike TV and the Internet, cannot give data on exactly how many users it has and cannot give ratings...
Why does it matter that radio cannot give ratings? Well, because any advertising campaign expenditures from sponsors must be justified at accounting at the sponsor company. How can one justify a radio campaign in Japan when clients cannot be told how many people listen and who is listening? They can, though, get data on viewers for TV and Internet and numbers for print media.
That upper management at a station can be serious and tell me in an incredulous tone, a full seven years after Toyota's announcement, that they just found out that the world's largest car maker stopped making radios for their cars shows just how completely out of touch with reality some people are with what's going on with people's lives and the world and society they live in.
But, gee, far be it from me to tell people what to do, but I think it is the duty of management to keep apace with the market and conditions. Anything less is gross negligence. The shareholders should be, and will be, furious. It's a simple matter of time.
You be the judge! Do you think people like that, who are so unaware of the market - and even their own business merits and demerits - who seem to not read business publications on market trends - can run a successful business? They should be fired! There are employees working under them who have families to support; management has a responsibility!
Of course, if the guilty parties ever read this, they would probably be angry at me for stating the obvious... I don't know why. I am doing them a favor....
But, as you know, when the tyrant king doesn't like the message, they will not consider where they went wrong, they will just kill the messenger boy...
What was I saying about the Peter Principle?