All things about the media, marketing, business, Japan and other musings by Mike in Tokyo Rogers.
Showing posts with label Abe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Abe. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Japan Economy: The Beginning of the End
Thanks to Zerohedge.
Christine Hughes sums it all up perfectly, for Japan, "The Math Is Stacked Against Japan - It's Not 'If', It's When."
Click here to watch the video: OtterWood Observations on Japan, May 2013
And to remind my detractors and to pat myself on the back, I'd like to point out that I said EXACTLY the same thing nearly six months ago on Dec. 29, 2012 when this mad policy by the Abe government was announced:
Here's Why A Weak Yen Will Destroy Japan
The clowns in the LDP think a weak yen will rescue Japan's faltering economy by making exports cheaper... Sounds good... That is, if there anyone to buy Japanese goods.
I fear that the weaker yen will be the last straw in breaking the Japanese Economy. Here's my reasoning why...
China and Japan are in a row over islands. Boom! Down goes exports to Japan's biggest trading partner. Please refer to the NY Times article, "Japan Trade Suffers as China Ties Deteriorate":
"Shipments to China, which is Japan's biggest trading partner, tumbled 14.1 per cent as demand dropped for Japan-branded products..."
Also refer to Japanese Car Sales Plunge Amid China Rage.
Europe is in no condition to be big spenders on anything as Euro states are already in deep recession.
The USA isn't in good shape either as it is in recession too and Japanese cars aren't selling well due to Fukushima and other issues.
Gee? So what will a weak yen certainly buy for Japan? Answer: How about a 10% increase across the board on energy imports?
Read the rest here: Here's Why A Weak Yen Will Destroy Japan
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Proof Again Japan IS (Has?) Collapsing - Bank of Japan Posts ¥233 Billion Loss - Red Ink on Balance Sheet Hits ¥156 Trillion!
Update below
Hate to say I'm right... Well, actually, no. I am happy to say that I was right when I wrote, "Japan is Collapsing."
Today over at Zerohedge they posted an article that is just jaw dropping. Please refer to: Bank of Japan Posts Whopping ¥233 Billion Loss As Its Soaring Balance Sheet Hits Record ¥156 Trillion
Hate to say I'm right... Well, actually, no. I am happy to say that I was right when I wrote, "Japan is Collapsing."
Today over at Zerohedge they posted an article that is just jaw dropping. Please refer to: Bank of Japan Posts Whopping ¥233 Billion Loss As Its Soaring Balance Sheet Hits Record ¥156 Trillion
But... but... a central bank can never lose money. Bzzzz, wrong. As it just so happens, the world's most tragicomic farce of a central bank, and one which is about to officially lost its (faux) "independence" and become a branch of the Japanese government if the up and coming PM Abe has his way, the Bank of Japan, just reported that in the quarter ended September 30, the Japanese central bank reported an operating loss of ¥183.4 billion, and a net loss of ¥232.9 billion. As a comparison, the loss in the same period in 2011 was "only" 91 billion. This is a harbinger of the total collapse that is the utterly meaningless capital tranche of all central banks will go through before the terminal phase of the global Keynesian experiment is finally completed. But in the meantime, enjoy this chart of the Bank of Japan's balance sheet returning back to a record ¥156... trillion.
Read the rest at Zerohedge
But, but (again as some illiterates think) the 0.0007874% of the foreign public living in Japan whose corporations pay for their children's schooling are part of the problem, right? Laughable.
Update: Incredibly, there will still be some who think that private industry or foreigners are "partially" to blame for Japan's woes (polite snickering, here please) instead of government meddling in the economy. To them, may I present this also from Zerohedge: The Cost Of Kidding Yourself
"...As horrific as these results are (USA), they’re better than Japan’s, whose “lost decade” proved only to be prologue for its “lost-er decade.” Japan’s share of the world economy fell more than 35% from 2001 to 2011 (literally worse than Zimbabwe) and has now shriveled 54% from its peak. But Japan’s real collapse did not coincide with the bursting of its stock and real estate bubbles in 1990 and 1991 respectively. The decline actually began in 1995 when policymakers allowed government debt to exceed 90% of GDP (a milestone the U.S. quietly passed in 2010)…
The more they “fixed” it, the more it broke. 17 years later, the only thing Japan has proved is that smart Japanese economists are about as real as Godzilla. Time and time again, the country has chosen collapse over admitting failure. On November 19, 2012, Bloomberg reported, “The Japanese government will spend 1 trillion yen ($12.3B) on a second round of fiscal stimulus as it tries to revive an economy at risk of sliding into recession.” It would be funny if it wasn’t so tragic.
……
To say that Japan is still growing (at least in terms of Yen), but everyone else is growing much, much faster in terms of Yen distorts the reality that Japan is undeniably shrinking relative to the world (no matter what currency is used).
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Japan is Collapsing
The financial situation just keeps getting worse in Japan...
I send my son to a very exclusive international private school in Tokyo. It is very expensive too. So expensive is it that just about every family who sends their kids there has their company foot the bill for tax reasons. Me too. I could never afford it; the company pays. If the company didn't pay, he'd go to public school and get a crap education.
At that school there are so many children of foreign ambassadors and the bosses of big Asian and Western companies that the list is like a who's who of Fortune 500 company children.
Then there is our family. I drive a used Toyota four-door and most of the other parents drive new Mercedes Benz or BMW's with the occasional Saab running around. Many children have chauffers drive them to school.
Not my kid. He's stuck with his hung-over and disheveled and unshaven dad behind the wheel every morning.
Our family is like a desert island in an ocean of opulence at that school.
Or, at least I thought so until the other day.
I was at the grocery store where I met one of the moms from the school. I see her sometimes; she doesn't work. Her husband is an executive at some big company. She drives around in a very nice Benz. They are rich... Or, like I said, so I thought....
We were on the escalator at the grocery store and she asked me how work was going. I answered that work was tough for us, just like it is for everyone else now. We all have to work 3 times as much for 1/2 the money. She sighed and said,
"Us too. I don't know if we can afford to pay for school anymore!"
That blew me away. Here I thought these folks were loaded with money. Heck, they are, or were. I have a hard time with one kid at that school. She has two!
I said to her,
"Yeah. You know, 20 years ago, I sent two girls through international school at the same time and I don't really remember it being too much trouble, money-wise. Now? Now it's all I can do to work and send one!"
She didn't say anything but I could tell from the expression on her face that she was genuinely worried.
I thought about it and got angry. I am angry at the stupid Japanese government for taking our tax money and bailing out these zombie banks and keeping the status quo intact at the expense of the people and our children's future. I am furious that the situation has gone on for so long. I am angry that it is not only us who is feeling the pain but everyone else I know... I get angry when I read the news and see that 15.7% of all Japanese are under the poverty level. I get pissed off when I see that our debt to GDP is over 237%....
And I really get angry when I read that these idiots in government want to raise our taxes and keep with the failed policies of these last twenty plus years.
And it really really astounds me that the people who got us into this mess can get reelected again. What a farce.
Mish Shedlock writes about the disaster about to befall us:
Japan's grand experiment of decades-long QE coupled with Keynesian foolishness is about to take one last gigantic leap forward before it plunges straight off the cliff into a massive currency crisis.
Please consider the New York Times article A Call for Japan to Take Bolder Monetary Action
Please consider the New York Times article A Call for Japan to Take Bolder Monetary Action
For years, proponents of aggressive monetary policy have offered this unusual piece of advice as a way to end Japan’s deflationary slump and invigorate the economy. Print lots of money, they said. Keep interest rates at zero. Convince the market that Japan will allow inflation for a while.
Japan’s central bankers long scoffed at such recklessness, which they feared would ignite runaway inflation. But now, the bank’s hand could be forced by an unlikely alliance of economists and lawmakers who have argued for Japan to take more monetary action after more than a decade of weak growth and depressed prices.
Championing their cause is the former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who is favored to return to the top job after nationwide elections next month. Otherwise deeply conservative, Mr. Abe surprised even his own supporters by calling for the Bank of Japan to be much bolder in tackling deflation, the damaging fall in prices, profits and wages that has choked Japan’s economy for 15 years.
In escalating remarks over the last week, Mr. Abe has said that he will press the Bank of Japan to act on government orders if his Liberal Democratic Party wins the Dec. 16 election and even rewrite Japanese law to reduce the bank’s independence.
In a speech in Tokyo on Thursday, Mr. Abe said he would call for the Bank of Japan to set an inflation target of 2 to 3 percent, far above its current goal of about 1 percent, with an explicit commitment to “unlimited monetary easing” — an open-endedness that has caused jitters among some economists. The bank’s benchmark interest rate should be brought back to zero percent from 0.1 percent, Mr. Abe added.
He went even further over the weekend, saying in the southern city of Kumamoto that he would consider having the bank buy construction bonds directly from the government to finance public works and force money into the economy, according to local news reports. That raises concerns, however, the bank may be called on to bankroll unrestrained spending on more roads and bridges that Japan does not need.
Economists cite several missteps by the central bank that have entrenched Japan’s deflationary mind-set and made consumers and businesses wary that the bank’s policies will stick. In early 1999, as the country’s economic woes deepened, the bank lowered a benchmark interest rate to virtually zero and said it would keep rates at zero until deflationary concerns disappeared. But an economic uptick in mid-2000 caused the bank to raise that rate to 0.25 percent despite protests from the government that the move was premature.
Monetarist Mush
Anyone who thinks an interest rate hike from 0% to .1% or even .25% has much influence on economic growth has "monetarist mush" for brains. Seriously.
The NYT does not name the economists, but I have no doubt they exist. Highly respected (for no reason) Richard Koo is one of them.
I have written about Koo on numerous occasions. From Japan's decade long experiment resulting in public debt of a 1,000,000,000,000,000 yen (a quadrillion yen), Koo reckons Japan failed to defeat deflation because it did not do enough!
Japan is in a crisis alright, and it was entirely self-made, by politicians listening to clueless economists all begging Japan to do something.
One Thing Worse
Central banks are bad enough on their own, but history shows that one thing worse than central banks acting on their own is central banks acting under control of politicians.
Committing to a little inflation will push stock prices higher, while a weaker yen will bolster Japan’s exporters and strengthen corporate balance sheets. Incomes will rise, fueling consumption and raising tax revenue for the government, said Kozo Yamamoto, a lawmaker of Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party.
“Basically, it’s what the Bank of Japan should have been doing for the past 15 years,” he said. “A few percent of inflation is nothing to be worried about.”
The economy is in the trash can and inflation is nothing to be worried about? Haven't these clowns in the government done enough???? We're doomed! Folks, get canned foods and buy gold and silver while you can.
For more please refer to:
Happy Thanksgiving! Sony and Panasonic are Junk! Japan Has No Leadership! Mish Shedlock Spells it Out!For more please refer to:
Also for more absurdity and proof the US education system is in the sh*t can, read this: Japan Was First to Use Nuclear Weapons... On Korea???!!!! Dave in Austin is Confused - You Need to Drink More! http://bit.ly/TjWqO9
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