This from Zerohedge is about how many nations, including staunch ally Japan, are quietly concluding business deals and trade that do not involve the US dollar - the world's supposed reserve currency. This needs no comment from me excepting that I'm wondering when gold and silver are going to go ballistic.
For anyone wondering how the abandonment of the dollar reserve status would look like we have a Hollow Men reference: not with a bang, but a whimper... Or in this case a whole series of bilateral agreements that quietly seeks to remove the US currency as an intermediate. Such as these:
and now this: "Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says." And ironically, the proposal to dump the greenback did not come from Iran.Per Bloomberg: "Iran and Russia replaced the U.S. dollar with their national currencies in bilateral trade, Iran’s state-run Fars news agency reported, citing Seyed Reza Sajjadi, the Iranian ambassador in Moscow. The proposal to switch to the ruble and the rialwas raised by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in Astana, Kazakhstan, of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the ambassador said." Is Iran gradually becoming the poster child of an energy rich country that just says no to the dollar: "Iran has replaced the dollar in its oil trade with India, China and Japan, Fars reported."...Read more
It won't be too long until Japan, China and Russia will complete bilateral trade agreements with the Eurozone nations in exchange for purchasing European Bonds or European Financial Stability Facilities (FSF). Oh, but don't worry, Only China, Japan, Russia, India, Brazil and the EU will make these transactions in other currencies besides dollars... Everyone else will still use good old US made paper! Who will that be, you ask? Well, there's the USA, and er... Ummmm...
The yen dropped by the most in three years against the dollar as Japan stepped into foreign-exchange markets to weaken the currency for the third time this year after its gains to a postwar record threatened exporters.
“I’ve repeatedly said that we’ll take bold action against speculative moves in the market,” Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi told reporters today after the government acted unilaterally. “I’ll continue to intervene until I am satisfied.”
The yen weakened against the more than 150 currencies that Bloomberg tracks as Azumi said he ordered the intervention at 10:25 a.m. local time because “speculative moves” in the currency failed to reflect Japan’s economic fundamentals. Today’s drop reversed this month’s previous gain by the yen against the greenback amid speculation the Federal Reserve may add to stimulus measures as the U.S. recovery stagnates.
The Japanese currency sank 4.3 percent as of 6:44 a.m. in London to 79.24 per dollar, after remaining at 79.20 for almost three hours. The yen headed for its biggest closing drop since October 2008. It fell to as low as 79.53 per dollar, the weakest since Aug. 4.
Seriously, these people are nuts. These fools keep doing this but it never works. They throw away billions, the yen falls for a short while, then it starts to rise again. Please refer to: Insanity: Japanese Government of August 9, 2011:
I write over and over until my fingers are bleeding that the government is run by idiots. For over twenty years, the clowns "at the helm" of the Japanese government have been creating debt and trying to manipulate the markets. We have the current situation to show for it: Massive public debt and an economy mired in the mud.
Last year's currency intervention was to stop the yen when it was at about ¥82 to the US dollar. The Japanese Central Bank threw $63 billion dollars at the problem then.
FIVE DAYS ago, the yen and dollar rate was ¥76.9 yen to one US dollar. The Japanese government threw $56 billion dollars at that. They were patting themselves on the back because the yen quickly shot past ¥80 to the US dollar. That was on August 4, 2011.
This is the third currency intervention by Japan this year. How many times do these idiots have to keep repeating the same mistake until they learn that these sorts of interventions never work?
Let me predict that we will see ¥75 to the US Dollar again before Feb. 2012... Soon followed by another massive currency intervention.
The last intervention was $60 billion dollars down the trash can. This newest one, with the biggest rise in the yen since 1978, must be well more than that! Japanese government debt is now 225% of GDP. Is it any wonder with the government so stupidly throwing money down the toilet over and over?
Monday morning (Sunday for most people who read this blog). I've got a ton of things to do but here's a few things I've been thinking about... Especially how, even a few days after press release, you can see proof of how messed up a company Linkedin Japan is. Linkedin Japan is a FAIL!
First up, though, before the bashing begins, for your enjoyment, a very cool video Mash-up by Hexstatic of Nancy Sinatra's sixties smash hit "These Boots Were Made For Walking"
The picture in Greece, whose troubles kicked off the crisis almost two years ago, is bleaker than ever. A new report from Athens' international debt inspectors -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- proved that a preliminary deal for a second package of rescue loans reached in July is already obsolete.
The report showed that in the past three months Greece's economic situation has deteriorated so dramatically that for the bank deal to remain in place, the official sector would have to provide some euro252 billion ($347 billion) in loans. Alternatively, to keep official loans at euro109 billion ($150 billion), banks would have to accept cuts of about 60 percent to the value of their Greek bonds.
….
100 Million Euros is insufficient. The IMF pegged the amount between 100 million and 200 million. There is absolutely no reason to suspect the minimum is needed. Indeed, there is every reason to expect 400 million euros is insufficient.
….
I believe 400 million Euros will prove way insufficient once Portugal, then Spain, then Italy get into trouble.
Like I said, I think we could see the bankruptcy of Greece any day now. If that happens, all bets are off and it's every man (family) for itself. I think people would be wise to draw out a good sum of money from the banks and have it at home for a few weeks just to be safe until we can see what is going to happen. I fear a "bank holiday" where it might not be possible to withdraw money (or possibly even use credit cards) from banks for a few days or even a week or two (or more?)
I always follow my own advice and I think I've done pretty well. I always mess up dates, though... But I predicted a bad situation in Autumn on 2011 and, well, here it is, autumn. Please refer to: Japan's Financial Armageddon is Coming in 60 Days?
I warned people in October of 2008 to buy gold and silver and to stock up on food (click the links for proof). At that time, gold was $724.08 an ounce (today gold is $1562.30) and silver was $9.11 an ounce (today silver stands at $47.40).
If you had taken my advice, you would have easily more than doubled your investment in gold and taken over a 520% profit on silver. It's still not too late to get into gold and silver but a price correction is coming so wait a bit.* There will be no price correction on food. Stock up now, while you can.
After the big Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, when the stores shelves were bare for a week or so (and no one knew at the time how things were going to turn out on the food and water situation) my family was fine; we had 6 months of food and water, enough for 5 people, stocked up and ready to go. When people panicked and ran away from Tokyo or when they were fighting for parking spaces at the local grocery store, or fighting for bottles of water, I only watched and shook my head in disbelief.
How can people be so gullible and foolish? How can people be so negligent and irresponsible not to be prepared?
…..
Let me give you fair warning again. Especially if you live in Japan:
1) Store up enough water for at least 2 months (6 months preferable)
2) Fill your bathtub with water every night (if water stops you can use for cleaning)
3) Today or this week, buy at least 2 months of canned food (6 months preferable)
4) It is still not too late! Start saving money every month by buying gold and silver. If you have some savings, take 33% of it out of the bank and buy gold. Take the other 33% and keep it at safe place at home.
It looks like we are headed for some really rough times. Better be prepared to stay out of the way.
The point I am ultimately making is that of course no one can predict the future but just because of that fact not being prepared is just plain foolish. I'm sure that there were many people in Tohoku before the earthquake and tsunami who could make the same claim that "No one could have predicted the future" so that's why many did not have food or water or the means to escape (same as many in Tokyo)... But this is not about predicting the future, this is about protecting yourselves and your family.
If you think this is about predicting the future, then use that same logic next time you buy auto, car, fire or life insurance. Don't need them, right? No one can predict the future.
While I mention Greece, another curious thing about the situation there is that it is not being mentioned on the MSM. There's lots about demonstrations in the USA, where things are peaceful for the most part, but in places like Greece, where the sh*t is about to hit the fan? Not a peep.
I had been looking at many videos on Youtube and others showing some very heavy fighting between rioters and police. I wish I would have bookmarked them. This one, though, give a good idea. This is not a friendly party.
The most worrisome point about the situation in Greece is that the government needs the police and military to stand by them to protect them from and increasingly angry and militant civilian gathering, yet, at the same time, even the Greek police and civil servants are furious about getting pay cuts and massive slashes to their pensions. I wonder how long until they switch sides?
What would that mean for Greece and the other countries in immediate danger (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland?)
And, finally, I see the ridiculous announcement from Linkedin that they finally "launched their Japanese site". Well, that's one big strike against them; they're lying. The service was actually launched sometime before May of 2010.
How to correctly handle a new product or service release? (in Japan)
A new company/product/service will need to appoint somebody in Japan to handle PR for them in Japan and work with that company to make a plan.
A necessary part of any good plan of attack would be that the representatives in Japan arrange meetings with major media at least 1 - 2 weeks before Japanese release day, as pre-press release. This is critical.
If this sort of ground-work is not fully prepared by the company and their reps in Japan, I strongly suggest that the company postpone the release of the product/service (and fire their representatives and hire a competent company) and then get properly prepared. If this sort of pre-press release is done correctly, the Japanese media will then follow-up and prepare and study the circumstances of the product/service and company so that they may be able to publish and provide better information for the Japanese audience (don't forget that the Japanese media are competing with each other, too, to provide up-to-date concise information, so this has to be done. No short-cuts here). This is critical for the success of any new company in Japan.
Even after years of repeated failures byvarious companies, to this very day, foreign companies come to Japan and repeat the mistakes Pepsi Cola and Seven-Up made decades ago. Some recent examples are Linkedin; E-Bay Japan, Google.jp, and a few others. (I strongly suspect Sugarsync is about to make the same mistake too!)
Take, for example, Linked-in. Linked-in came out with a Japanese version quite a while back but no one here in Japan uses it because no one knows about it; they had no local representation; no pre-press release information.
Kind of shocking, when you think about it; a supposedly forward thinking company coming to Japan and making such an amateurish mistake.
Well, Linkedin made that mistake. I also am quite familiar with this as I wrote a letter to Linkedin twice in early 2010 offering them a partnership with some companies that suggested tying up with Sony and placing the Linkedin software with all new Vaio computers sold. I sent them the letter twice. Twice, no response. Chuckle. Now, they've realized almost 1.5 years later that no one uses their Japanese language product (and probably won't). They blew a golden opportunity to tie up with one of the biggest companies in Japan... Now, what are they going to do?
You don't penetrate the Japanese market on the cheap and you usually have only one chance to get it right.
Let me make a prediction that I will stand by completely: Linkedin Japan will be a flop and failure along the lines of E-Bay in Japan.
Well, it's the start of another week. Keep positive. Write down your goals and smile.
Groupon is about to go IPO in the USA. The failing stock market, the Euro problems, the faltering US Dollar and Groupon's own consistent mistakes make me think that Groupon's IPO will either be postponed or a great disappointment for investors.
I've said many times that Groupon was going to be a massive failure. The most recent was a post about how Groupon has disappeared from the face of the earth (in Japan). For more on that, refer to The Great Groupon Disappearing Act:
Recently, Groupon Japan has completely dropped off the map. I never see their online ads anymore at all (sign of over extension) yet you see their competition all over the place.
The biggest two that seem to be kicking Groupon (hereinafter referred to as "Groupoff") in the royal behind is a new-comer called G-Market and Recruit's own Pompare.
You see online banner ads for these two constantly. I haven't seen an online ad for Groupon for 9 weeks in a row now (and trust that I am on the Internet constantly).
The other thing that makes me realize that Groupon Japan is almost as messed up as Groupon in the USA is the fact that, while you see no banner ads for Groupon in Japan on the Internet anymore, if you watch a minor cable TV network (I think it is J-com) you see their ads every once in a while.
Let me ask you a question: What kind of an idiot advertises an internet business on TV yet doesn't advertise on the internet at all?
It all goes back to a well worn stubborn and obstinate attitude that foreigners have when they bring heir business to Japan. Please refer to Groupon Ex-Partner Chimes In:
Groupon has committed the Cardinal sin that many companies from the west committed before in this country; they came to Japan and didn't make the effort to understand the Japanese and this country well enough. Now they will pay the price for that mistake. I've written before in an article entitled, "How New Companies Can Succeed in Japan - and How They Fail." It's about how, in spite of the fact that giant players from the west came to Japan, with great products and a successful track record in the west - such as Pepsi Cola, Universal Studios, E-Bay, Carrefours, etc. - they failed miserably because they didn't take the time to learn the intricacies of Japan and how to do business here.
The companies that do well here, Disney, Coca-Cola etc. Did bother to understand the market and now they dominate. McDonald's, in fact, even changed their name to fit in with Japanese pronunciation! McDonald's in Japan is not McDonald's. It is "Makudonarudo." Go up to any Japanese and ask them where a McDonald's is and they won't have any idea what you are talking about.
But I digress...
Groupon, I predict is the next in a long line of failures in Japan. In fact, today I met with a friend who is the head editor of one of the biggest magazines in Japan and this editor said, "There's no way for that company, Groupon... Their reputation is already shot. And, in Japan, reputation is everything. The women don't trust it."
This was the first time that someone who knows how the average Japanese woman feels telling me what I had already suspected; Groupon Japan has a terrible reputation with the women in Japan and it's getting worse.
Now, today, once again, we have another example of Groupon gross mismanagement.
When a company files for the right to sell Initial Public Offerings (IPO) they must, according to SEC rules, go into a "quiet period" whereby potential investors are able to go over their company reports and sales, etc. to come up with ideas of potential value. It is against rules for that company to be making public announcements that may slant or create unjust publicity for that company.
But, just as with the inept handling of the Japan New Year's deal, Groupon CEO Mason has gotten himself in trouble again with making company announcements that he must have known would be leaked to the public.
Commentary: Has the company run afoul of quiet-period rules?
Daily-deal pioneer Groupon Inc. appears to be hell-bent on becoming the poster child for business schools and budding entrepreneurs on how not to go public.
Since the company filed its IPO prospectus for potential investors on June 2, Groupon appears to be close to running afoul of the "quiet period" that is required of businesses once they file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Last month, Chief Executive Andrew Mason wrote a memo to employees about a story he had read (in the car, while driving alone, apparently). The report, one in a barrage of negative stories in recent months, wondered whether Groupon is running out of cash. Mason wrote a long defense of his company's business model, its stance against rivals and an explanation of the bizarre accounting metric used in Groupon's financials that raised eyebrows with regulators. (His message to the troops was obtained by our colleagues over at AllThingsD. Read Mason's full memo.
Last week, an outside PR person for Groupon pointed another reporter in the direction of that same email, fueling speculation that the memo was written by Mason knowing that it would be leaked. Read Private Equity Hub's run-in with Groupon.
Let me predict right here that the Groupon IPO will either be postponed or a failure. Couple this bad publicity and inept management with the current serious decline in stock prices and you have the ripe situation for Groupon IPO to be valued at something like $20 a share. That would be a massive failure.
The situation gets worse when you see that the recently hired PR expert by Groupon has already quit and you can just smell the scent of an organization that is demoralized and in disarray.
In addition to the furor over the email sent to staff, Silicon Valley PR veteran Brad Williams, hired only two months ago as Groupon's head of corporate communications, recently quit. A Groupon spokeswoman said it was a mutual decision; Williams did not return calls, but reports indicate that he may have butted heads with Mason.
"It just doesn't seem to get uglier than this," said Rocky Agrawal, an entrepreneur who advises start-ups, of the company's IPO process so far. Agrawal has found serious problems in Groupon's financials and has written about his concerns.
Attorneys appear to be split on whether Groupon has violated the SEC's rules, and whether employee communications can be considered speaking to potential investors. In 1996, San Francisco-based Wired had to pull its IPO after magazine publisher Louis Rossetto wrote a similar rally-the-troops email. In 2005, the SEC revamped its rules, albeit slightly.
It is reasonable to think that Mason wrote the memo purely to spur morale, feeling frustrated by the restrictions imposed by the SEC. But how he handled this communication is calling attention to his leadership.
Seriously? After all these screw ups, with the Super Bowl ads, Japan, etc., etc., people are just now figuring out that something isn't quite right with the CEO? You're kidding me!
Mason has fashioned himself as a sort of David Letterman CEO — quirky and funny, with an odd sense of humor that pervades the company, its deals and even its poorly received Super Bowl ads in February.
But he cannot be so naive as to not realize that sending out a lengthy, defensive-sounding email to thousands of employees would not end up in the press eventually. There are other, more concise ways Mason could have communicated. He also barely reminded employees of the regulatory restrictions that Groupon is under, only to say "we've refrained from defending ourselves publicly," and that "for now we must patiently and silently endure a bit more public criticism as we prepare to birth this IPO baby."
Under the harsh spotlight of the IPO, when companies are required to refrain from actions that might be seen as pumping up the stock ahead of the debut, Mason's behavior seems childish and impetuous.
"I have been doing this a long time," said Scott Sweet, senior managing partner at the IPO Boutique, about following the market for initial public offerings. "That IPO really bothers me."
Sweet's concerns include the issues that have been noted in recent months: the firm's high marketing costs, major competitors and heavy losses. But he is also now calling out Mason, Groupon's eccentric chief.
"No matter how the CEO spins it, he is not talking to the choir," Sweet added. "He is talking to his ego."
Whether this brouhaha will affect how Groupon is received by investors has yet to be seen. The company has not yet started its road show to tell its story. But so far, it's serving as a textbook case on what not do to during the IPO process.
Here's a few more tidbits that I have gathered about Groupon that alert readers may be interested in: Groupon grossed $700 M (USD) but spent $413 M (USD) on advertising.
What is the Groupon business model? It is SPAM. Send people spam. In the day and age of Social Media and Social Media Marketing the utter idea that Groupon would attempt to grow their business without a marketplace or social media component and just email seems to be to be absurd. This is a massive failure.
Groupon in Japan has over 600 people employed in sales going door to door trying to get deals. They use email to sell. That they wouldn't create a marketplace, not have any plan to, shows a lack of understanding of Internet 2.0 and today's Internet users.
Groupon was a great business model two years ago, when there were no competitors. But now, there are many. And those competitors have or are building marketplace portals. I cannot comment too much about the rest of the world, but, at least in Japan, Groupon is dead.
Like I said, the failing stock market, the Euro problems, the faltering US Dollar and Groupon's own consistent (and constant) mistakes make me think that Groupon's IPO will either be postponed or a great disappointment for investors.
Of course it will. There's too many bad factors running against Groupon.
Come to think of it, have you heard anything good about that company in the last 6 months? I haven't.
Groupon, I predict, will be the business world's poster child for these turbulent times; a highly touted and very visible new company jumps from the starting gates on the crash headlong into reality and the real world. Throw in shady business and accounting practices and you have a model reflection of the US government...
Shady business and accounting practices? US government? Everyone knows how well the US government is doing!
Hello Groupon! welcome to IPO in the stock market crash of Autumn 2011. As with everything you've done so far, your timing is impeccable.
