BCC Mass Mailing is Grossly Misused and Often Counter-Productive

Just a quick post about a recent pet peeve of mine... BCC mailings...

I received two mails today that were sent to me by BCC. They both went immediately into the trash.

Why? Well, I think that if I am being sent a BCC mass mailing then the message must not be important.

There's a difference in receiving a BCC mass mailing announcement of some sort of event or announcement and receiving a BCC for being privy to an inside private letter concerning some business details.

Getting a BCC that only goes to a few people about some private message between two (possibly feuding) people concerning work-related issues is OK. I think, in that case, BCC can be useful.

For example, I am having a discussion with someone at work over policy issues; I need political support from people in different departments. I might send a few trusted people BCC copies of the emails; I might need them to know the content of the discussion.

Oh, sure, in the perfect world, some might say that "All communication should be totally open and honest." Yes, and I'd agree. The problem is that in the real world (corporate world) things often aren't that way at all; there's all sorts of skulduggery going on at some companies. Inter-company politics often make totally open discussion impossible; especially in a society like Japan where people rarely will say their opinion in a direct fashion.

The two mails I received by BCC mass mailing announcements were for concerts by artists this weekend. Like I said, I didn't even open them.

I figure if the promoters really wanted me to come to their shows, they write to me directly and not "To Whom it May Concern" or "Dear Occupant."

I also received another mail, directly sent to me by another promoter, that announced a third show.

I might go to that one. That promoter actually took the time (one minute?) to write my name in the email and send it to me directly.

Personalized emails? What a quaint notion.

Anyway, the point is that I think, today, BCC is completely overused and is a lazy way to do business. I also think that this is a crutch for far too many people and companies and BCC has gotten to the point where it can be counter-productive.

If you want people to pay attention to your announcements then spending 45 seconds to send out a mass BCC mailing is a waste of your time and everyone else's. I asked several friends if they even bother to read BCC announcements and they all said, "No!" 

I ask you, dear reader, do you read them?

If the receivers are worthy of your attention, then I think you should take the time to send them a personalized direct invitation...

BCC means today, "Badly Conceived Communications."

BCC is suitable only for when a communication is between a few people and a third party needs to be informed....

Should be called, FYEO: For Your Eyes Only.

Japanese Consumer Confidence WAY Down & New Leak at Fukushima! It's All Good News!

Well, as I have been saying for a long time, in spite of my foreign-born detractors, who live in Japan but seem to be out of touch with what the average Japanese on the street is thinking, average Joe Tanaka is not happy at all about Abenomics. And there's now data to back me up on that point; not just anecdotal evidence. 

Happy as hell! See?

There's no way to paint this is a positive note: Consumer Confidence in Japan is downright miserable. Before I get to the proof, here's some background: 

In The Facts: Data Doesn't Lie and "Positive" Writing, I wrote:

Look, there's responsible fiscal policy and then there's what the Japanese government (and US government, EU, etc.) are doing: irresponsible deficit spending. Japan has been doing what Abe is doing for over 20 years. The only difference is that Abe has put the deficit spending into hyper-drive.

Over twenty year of deficit spending and infrastructure projects? Look where it has gotten Japan today.

Folks, you couldn't deficit spend like this on your own home and personal finances; you'd go bankrupt. This isn't rocket science. No matter what the government says or how they try to spin things, this is simple math. Mathematics are a bitch and they are consistent as hell. Two plus two will always equal four. It doesn't change.

Japan's low interest rates and easy money policies on steroids will not yield any different results than they already have.....

A few days later, I added in Cheerleaders for Abenomics Extremely Quiet: Inflation on Energy, Gas and Food Up - Wages Down 

....The average consumer confidence drops for three months in a row, amongst all the Abenomics recent good news? (polite laughter and applause here, please!) And amongst merchants, it drops for 5 months in a row, and people say I'm negative? Yes, OK. Fair enough. I may be negative on Abenomics, but I work amongst the Japanese and hear what they say and talk about. I'm no more negative than they are. 

I just report the facts. Just the facts, ma'am!

Like I said, I work closely with the average Japanese person; at both my jobs: one is with business people and the other at the radio station brings me closely in contact with the average Japanese who commutes to work (how much more "average" can you get than commuters going to work in trains and cars to white and blue collar jobs who listen to regular old FM radio?)

Well, well, well, lookie what we have today! The Bank of Japan has just released a poll: BOJ Poll: Japan Consumer Confidence Slips on Lower Income.

In that poll the consumer confidence index actually crashed from a year before - when people were fooled into voting for Shinzo Abe - and the index actually stands today at a -8.3 (I'm not too sure about how badly a minus confidence point is calculated, but it was only -4.8 last year).

Here's a few tidbits from that report by BOJ:

The government data showed that Japan's core consumer price index (excluding perishables but including energy) rose 0.8% on year in August, the third straight y/y rise after +0.7% in July and +0.4% in June, which was the first rise in 14 months. It remains the largest gain since +1.0% in November 2008.  

The average household spending fell a real 1.6% on year in August, marking the first y/y drop in two months after a 0.1% gain in July. The average real income of salaried workers' households fell a real 0.9% on year in August, the first fall in six months while their disposable income also posted the first drop in six months, down 1.4%.

Wolf Richter over at the Testoserone Pit slices and dices this data into much easier form than I ever could. He writes in: Japanese Consumers, Hammered By Abenomics, Get Gloomier:

In the prior survey, undertaken in June, the index had jumped 17.8 points to a still low -4.8. Consumers at the time were less disillusioned about the promise of Abenomics that something good would trickle down to them, from the trillions of yen that the Bank of Japan was handing to megabanks on a monthly basis. But now consumers have opened their eyes, looked at price tags and glanced at their paychecks, and the index fell to -8.3. 

One of the stated policies of Abenomics and the Bank of Japan is to stir up inflation. It has worked wonderfully, with year over year inflation rising. Goods inflation has hit 1.8%. Alas, consumers reported that rising costs of essentials, such as utilities and food, were cutting into what they could spend on other things. At the same time, more people reported that their incomes actually dropped from a year ago. 

Great! And, uh, this money printing by the Bank of Japan was supposed to be hand in hand with an increase in wages... Didn't happen; nor will it. 

Wolf Richter continues:

This isn’t just an idle impression of benighted consumers who don’t get Abenomics: Average household spending adjusted for inflation fell 1.6% year over year in August, more than wiping out the minuscule rise of 0.1% in July. Not a surprise: the average inflation-adjusted income of households of salaried workers, after six months of small improvements, dropped 0.9% year over year in August, and their disposable income dropped 1.4%. 

This combination of inflation without wage increases – or worse, with wage declines – amounted to inflation without compensation. And consumers don’t expect it to end anytime soon: 83% of the respondents expected prices to continue to rise over the next twelve months, up from 80.2% in June. 

So only a minuscule 16.2% saw the economy improving over the next twelve months, down in a big way from the already low 24.3% in June. Even more people expected their income to fall over that period. 

Throw in the increase in Sales Tax and what do you have? A disaster in the making.

Folks, I love Abenomics as much as the next Japanese guy (Someone go out and find that next Japanese guy, I can't find him anywhere!) but this is simple mathematics... 

People's spending is already down, along with consumer confidence before the Sales Tax increase is implemented...

It's not rocket science what's going to happen here in Japan...

This isn't being negative; the data backs up what I'm writing here... Like I said, not negative, just realistic.

No amount of happy talk is going to fix this problem.... 

....Or what's going on at Fukushima!

Kyodo News, October 3, 2013: 

New leak of stored toxic water found at Fukushima plant: TEPCO [...] Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Wednesday it has found that highly toxic water has leaked from another storage tank at the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex. [...] TEPCO, which operates the Fukushima plant, said it detected high levels of radioactive materials in water accumulated within barriers around a group of storage tanks including the leaky one.

Abe assured the Olympic committee all leaks we secured... But, as usual, he didn't know what the hell he was talking about... I wonder if my friends will complain that I don't report this in a positive light?

NOTE: This is the BIG NEWS in Japan today. Watch a NHK (English) news report here:

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20131003_04.html

Now, I'm not talking about how dangerous these leaks are or are not. My point is credibility of the government. Now, think about this: If people can't believe what the government leaders say, then how can they have any confidence?

Very Sprite, Alert and Healthy 97 Year Old Guy Gives Tips for a Long Life

I am reposting (slightly altering) this post from March, 21 2013, because this dear man, Yasuyuki Hashimoto, passed away late last night. Thankfully, he wasn't in pain and passed quietly.

Hashimoto san lived to be 97-years-old. He was very spry and alert just up to about 12 weeks ago. Then his health rapidly began to decline. I was very surprised to see how fast it was. 

It just goes to show us all how fleeting the wonders and joys of life can be.

Please read this story of the wonderful man and remember to enjoy and cherish all the wonderful things this short life gives us. Remember to live each day to its fullest. Tomorrow comes too soon.

And now the article....

I have been written a lot about philosophical things like life & death, purpose, respect and dedication as well as choosing a partner well. Today, I'd like to introduce to you a guy who I have met in these last few days that has really blown my mind. I also want to share some of his philosophies on living a long life. I'm sure you will get a smile and a laugh as I did.

IGGY POP - LUST FOR LIFE

I am so glad to introduce you to this fascinating man. You'll be glad you met him too! His name is Yasuyuki Hashimoto and he is 97-years-old. I suppose being 97-years-old is pretty cool but, in Japan, it's not that unusual. The thing amazing about Yasuyuki Hashimoto is that he is 97 and must the one of the brightest, most energetic, alert and healthy 97-year-old folks you'll ever meet... He's totally coherent and he stays in the conversation and is not hard of hearing. 

Yasuyuki Hashimoto 95-years-old  March 2, 2011

Not only that, but Yasuyuki has never been admitted into a hospital in his entire life!!!


Get that? Of course Yasuyuki has visited doctors before, but he has never stayed overnight in a hospital in his entire life. Can you believe that!? Wow! He must be some sort of miracle of science.  


But I guess he's not a miracle of science. Yasuyuki was a guy who worked hard and played hard too! Yasuyuki told me about the old days when he was a salesman for Ishikawa Heavy Industries (IHI) and he said he smoked about 1.5 packs of cigarettes a day and drank to excess nightly.

As a salesman for IHI in the 1950's

"Mike, as you know, in Japan, salesmen must drink with their clients. I was a good salesman so I was drunk often." Yasuyuki said. His 63-year-old son added, "What!? You were drunk every night!" Looking at me the son added, "Sometimes he would pass out in the street and we'd have to carry him home. ."


Yes. Yes. I can relate to that... (Thank god, I don't do that anymore! - Mike) 

"Excuse me, bartender! I'll have what he's drinking!


Anyway, Yasuyuki says he stopped drinking 5 years ago and stopped smoking about 15 years ago.  

Yasuyuki in army uniform looking a lot like 

Erwin Rommel (circa 1942)

I have met many 70-year-olds that weren't half as spry and alert as Yasuyuki is. This guy is simply amazing! Yesterday we had lunch together and we were talking about old times and he was joking about how much he used to like to drink to excess (something that I can definitely relate to). His conversational abilities are incredible.... And I don't mean incredible for his age, I mean, he's glib and funny and tells jokes! 


Wow! I hope that I can be 1/2 as bright and bushy-tailed as Yasuyuki is when I'm 80! In fact, when Yasuyuki was 80 years old, his son told me of a time that his father met a stewardess at a bus stop and wound up with the young lady accompanying him back home. Imagine that! You have an 80-year-old dad who is very peppy, energetic, red-blooded and robust guy showing up back at home with some pretty 30-some year old airlines stewardess! Wow! You can't make this stuff up.


Yeah. When I grow up I want to be just like Yasuyuki Hashimoto!   

Yasuyuki as a junior high school

student circa 1930 (back row - upper right)

Yasuyuki Hashimoto was born in Tokyo in 1916. He went to school in Tokyo and was conscripted into the Imperial Japanese Army immediately after university. During the war, in 1942, he was stationed in Indonesia and say he spent his time enjoying the country and fishing.


There were no big battles in the area his unit was stationed in. He did say, though, that American planes would come snooping around everyday and some of the rascals in his unit wanted to shoot at the plane, but cooler heads prevailed. Yasuyuki and the others knew that if they shot at the plane, the Americans would just come back tomorrow with more planes, so they left them alone (kind of like not whacking a hornet's nest).


He said he and his fellows soldiers would stand around and look at the plane as it flew around. The planes were so close that they could see the pilot's face! They'd stare at the pilot and the pilot would stare back and  then fly away.


This theater of the absurd went on for everyday until the end of the war.

Out with the boys on the field in Indonesia 1942

About the war, I asked Yasuyuki if he and his fellow soldiers believed that the emperor was god? Yasuyuki looked incredulously at me and said, "No! Are you kidding? We weren't that stupid!" We both then howled with laughter.


Yasuyuki has many funny and interesting stories. I wish I could share them all with you.

Student conscripts in front of Mt. Fuji (circa 1940)

I did, though, ask Yasuyuki two important questions. The first was, "What is the secret to long life?"


Yasuyuki answered, "Live a boring, peaceful life." 


That makes sense. It reminds me, once again, of the Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times." Yasuyuki's advice fits in well; peace and serenity and quiet and calm; those are the secrets to a long life. 


I think it is good advice. I hope that I can live a boring life someday spending quiet time with my family and fishing and living among nature.

Yasuyuki Hashimoto (back row, third from right)

(circa 1942)

The second question I asked Yasuyuki was, "Do you have any advice for readers as to how to live a happy, peaceful and long life?" 

To this Yasuyuki thought for a moment and said, "No. The best advice I can give anyone is no advice. I don't like it when people are always giving out advice. I have no advice to give."


Think about that, dear readers, isn't that just like Zen Buddhism? In a word, Yasuyuki's advice can be summed up as, "The best advice is no advice!"


Wow! I am taking that to heart. Think about it, folks. It's true!


The best advice is no advice! 


Yasuyuki Hashimoto san! Thank you for everything. May god rest your soul...

And for you reading this, take a moment to be thankful for all you have; give your spouse and kids a hug.

Be happy.

The Facts: Data Doesn't Lie and "Positive" Writing

Yesterday I met a dear friend of mine. He complained about this blog. He said to me, "Why do you always write such negative things? Why don't you write more positive things about what Abe (Shinzo) is doing? Exports are going up!"

I replied, "Japan just had 14 months of trade deficits in a row for the first time in modern history. Last month was the worst trade deficit in history. Exports went up 14% but that was after more than a 25% decrease in the value in the yen since October 2012 (15% this year alone), which actually, considering accrual accounting, means that exports went down 9% since Oct. 2012."

That was all I said.

BNP Paribas just reported that they estimate that Abenomics will fail. Please refer to: BNP Paribas Gives Abenomics Only 10% Chance of Success? 

I write this stuff because (may I brag?) I'm usually ahead of the curve. I've been complaining about Abenomics since October of 2012... It, seems to me, was easily predictable what was going to happen. I'm glad to see big financials finally coming around and supporting my views.

I don't know how anyone can put on a happy face and spin that into anything positive for the economy... But people do. I seriously doubt that reporting this sort of thing in a positive spin makes it any more potable. 

Look, there's responsible fiscal policy and then there's what the Japanese government (and US government, EU, etc.) are doing: irresponsible deficit spending. Japan has been doing what Abe is doing for over 20 years. The only difference is that Abe has put the deficit spending into hyper-drive.

Over twenty year of deficit spending and infrastructure projects? Look where it has gotten Japan today.

Folks, you couldn't deficit spend like this on your own home and personal finances; you'd go bankrupt. This isn't rocket science. No matter what the government says or how they try to spin things, this is simple math. Mathematics are a bitch and they are consistent as hell. Two plus two will always equal four. It doesn't change.

Japan's low interest rates and easy money policies on steroids will not yield any different results than they already have.

Yahoo reports a week ago in: Analysis - Japan faces record-long trade deficit, little sign can reverse trend: 

Japan is on course for its longest run of trade deficits, effectively marking the end of the nation's decades-long reliance on exports from the likes of electronics giant Sony and automaker Toyota as a driver of growth and income. Trade figures due on Thursday are likely to show that Japan produced its 14th consecutive deficit in August, matching a 1979-1980 record run during the global oil shock. Economists say the deficits will continue. When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's reflationary policies weakened the yen after he took power last December, many economists had anticipated a so-called J-curve effect, where a spike in import costs would over time be more than offset by gains in exports. But a closer look at trade statistics shows that the currency's 15 percent decline since the beginning of this year has failed to produce the export turnaround needed to bring the trade balance back into the black and there is little indication it will do so in the future.

Do we need a positive spin on that? How about if they added, "Wonderfully" as the first word in the paragraph?

Like I said, facts and data don't lie. People have lost their ability to take things into perspective. Here's some perspective for you folks who think what Abe is doing is good:

In The Money Stocks reports in Quantitative Easing On Steroids

"The Bank of Japan has stated that they will implement monthly bond purchases in the amount of 7.5 trillion yen (US$78 billion) per month in an attempt to increase inflation to two percent within the next two years. Currently, the United States is buying $85 billion worth bonds every month. It is important to note that Japan's economy is one third of the size as the United States. So it is safe to say, Japan has the printing presses on turbo at this time."

Get that part? Bank of Japan is implementing bond purchases at $78 billion (USD) per month. The Japanese economy is one-third the size of the US. People are up in arms and complaining about so-called "Quantative Easing" in the USA and how that is destroying the US economy... Yet, in comparison of apples to apples percentage of GDP, Japan is spending three times the US!

How does anyone put a positive spin on that? Let's try multi-billionaire Marc Faber... He says of the USA:

"The endgame is a total collapse, but from a higher diving board. The Fed will continue to print and if the stock market goes down 10% they will print even more. And they don’t know anything else to do. And quite frankly, they have boxed themselves into a corner where they are now kind of desperate."

Now, multiply that times three for Japan.

Great! Next up, how does anyone put a positive spin on this chart? The numbers don't lie; politicians and economists do.

For the eight month period, the trade deficit hit a record of ¥6.8 trillion, up 66% from the same period in 2012, and up 332% from 2011. During that period in 2010, Japan had a surplus of ¥4.2 trillion! Japan’s trade fiasco is on a steep downward slope. August was the worst August ever, July the worst July ever, June the worst June ever.... There’s no discernible turning point on the horizon. See more: modernmarketingjapan.blogspot.jp/2013/09/bnp-paribas-gives-abenomics-only-10.html

Like I said, I don't know how to put a positive spin on this sort of data. I'm not talented enough to do that. I do know that when someone reads this and then they get frustrated because "It's all negative news (on this blog)" Then they are making the mistake of attacking the messenger and not the message.

Ignoring bad news and facts and data do not make them disappear.

When a drunk or drug addict or someone with a gambling addiction has a problem, the first thing they have to do is admit it and then look for ways to do something about it. I am merely reporting the facts.

When someone does comes up with new math that can make these bad numbers magically become good, then let me know.

If you want to read happy stuff about the economy, you've come to the wrong place... Hopefully, that situation will only be temporary... But at the way way Shinzo Abe and Japan is going... That won't be soon.

Oh, that sounds negative too! OK. How about this? 

"In a positive note: If you want to read happy stuff about the economy, you might not be in the best place, but you could do worse!. Hopefully, that situation will only be temporary... But, I am absolutely POSITIVE that, at the way way Shinzo Abe and Japan is going... That won't be soon."

But as my wife would say, "If you're so smart, why ain't you rich?"

BNP Paribas Gives Abenomics Only 10% Chance of Success? - I Think They Are Way Too Optimistic

There's a very interesting article over at Zero Hedge from BNP Paribas parsing out the chances of success for Abenomics. 

Everything is under control!

The article is entitled: BNP Warns Only 10% Chance That Abenomics "Ends Well." Here's a few snippets:

Japan’s core CPI (which excludes perishables) surged 0.7% y/y in July, but the upturn is largely due to higher prices for energy that reflect rising import prices due the yen’s weakness. Despite global exuberance at Abe's "progress", BNP notes that there are still no signs of price growth for rent and service prices, factors behind Japan’s protracted deflation. Crucially, BNP believes that Abenomics could lead to four possible medium-term outcomes: (1) Continued deflation (35% probability), (2) Financial repression (40%), (3) High inflation (15%), and (4) Happy end to deflation via revived trend growth (10%).

On the continued deflation 35% possibility...

Under this scenario, the economic euphoria, yen depreciation and stock market rally triggered by the BOJ’s new dimension in monetary easing (QQE) will be found to be just momentary things based essentially on placebo-like effects. On this score, ever since stock market corrections began from late May, various sentiment indicators have peaked out and started trending lower....

The BOJ’s Kuroda has declared that open-ended easing will remain in effect until 2% inflation is achieved. Because of this, many might feel that this scenario should not have a very high probability. But, as pointed out above, because the long-term interest rate is already very low, no matter how much the BOJ inflates its balance sheet with aggressive purchases of long-term JGBs, the effects will be meager. 

On the 10% chance of success...

Now If Abenomics’ growth strategies were to show dramatic success, allowing the trend growth to significantly revive, the resulting improved growth expectations could encourage households and businesses to increase spending, thereby fostering improvements in the output gap that bring an end to deflation. While ending deflation via revived trend growth would be a happy ending, the probability of this optimal scenario is just 10%.  

We cannot assign a higher probability because growth strategies, even if successful, do not bring dramatic changes. Currently, the government hopes to achieve trend growth of 2% over the coming decade, but that means the per capita trend growth rate will have to climb to 2.7%. Over the past 30 years, the only time per capita trend growth ever approached 3% was during the bubble in the latter half of the 1980s. If we assume that the workforce will continue shrinking almost 0.7% annually (and this figure prices in higher employment rates for women), increasing the per capita trend growth rate from the current 1% to 1.5% will still put overall trend growth at just 0.8%. Seeing how the per capita trend growth rate in America is slightly over 1% and that of the EU about 0.5%, hoping for 1.5% would be very optimistic. The government, however, aims for an even higher target (2.7%) and there is no magic wand to achieve it.  

Now even if this happy ending scenario were to unfold, that does not mean that structural problems, like the swelling public debt and insolvent social welfare, will be headed for resolution. 

Yep. The last line is the killer. The structural problems are not being addressed at all: the debt, bankrupt social welfare... It's better for the government to kick the can down the road...

Ten percent? Really? That's way optimistic, guys. The two biggest reasons why this growth won't happen are:

1) Demographics and aging Japan along with a severe decline in the workforce. Please refer to: Japan’s deflation is a product of shrinking work force, not policy:

In his first testimony before the Diet last week, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted, “Japan’s economy has suffered from deflation for nearly 15 years. This is an extraordinary situation even on a global scale.” 

We would supplement Kuroda-san’s statement with the observation that the working-age population and employment have also been declining for 15 years. This is no coincidence... deflation is a natural consequence of a declining labour supply, as long as technological innovation persists at a faster pace than employment is shrinking. We therefore predict that no amount of monetary stimulus can reverse the trend decline in prices: The roots of Japan’s deflation are not monetary. 

Calculations by High Frequency Economics show quarterly employment in Japan has declined 5 per cent since 1998. As Japan’s huge demographic cohort of baby boomers ages, they are leaving the work force.

2) The devaluation of the yen hasn't shown any good results overall yet. Last month, Japan hit it's 14th straight month of trade deficits and the largest trade deficit in history! From Yahoo: Japan trade deficit swells 25 percent in August: 

Japan's trade deficit swelled to a larger-than-forecast 960.3 billion yen ($9.8 billion) in August, the 14th straight month of red ink, as imports outpaced growth in exports, customs data showed Thursday.  Boosted by higher fuel costs, imports rose 16 percent from a year earlier to 6.74 trillion yen ($68.7 billion) while exports climbed 14.7 percent to 5.78 trillion yen ($58.9 billion). The deficit was a quarter bigger than the 768.4 billion yen gap seen in August 2012.  In surplus for years, Japan's trade account fell into deficit after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami on Japan's northeastern coast caused meltdowns at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant. With all nuclear plants offline for safety checks or maintenance, imports of crude oil and natural gas have soared.  Costs of imported fuel, which comprise more than a third of all imports, rose nearly 18 percent in August, despite a slight decline in volume.

So, uh, how's that yen devaluation working out for Japan so far? Not good. And with all of Japan's nuclear power plants offline (and Fukushima in the headlines - everyday) there's no foreseeable chance they are going back online anytime soon.

Testosterone Pit slams more nails into the coffin. Please refer to: Trade Is Supposed To Save Japan, According To The Gospel Of Abenomics, But In Reality... 

Trade is one of the aspects that Abenomics has designated as critical. So the Bank of Japan has embarked on a radical money-printing program to devalue the yen and make exports more competitive. The principle of a currency war. It would also render imports so expensive that buyers would seek domestic alternatives. The resulting trade surplus would save Japan. In theory. 

In reality, the opposite is happening.  Exports did jump 14.7% in August year over year, the Ministry of Finance reported. But the rest was ugly. Exports were valued in yen, and the yen had lost 20% of its value over the year. So in most categories, export volume actually declined. 

But Imports jumped 16%, from a higher base, and the trade deficit soared 25% to ¥960.3 billion ($9.6 billion). Analysts were shocked.  It was the worst August trade deficit ever. It was the 14th month in a row of trade deficits, matching the longest such spell of 1979-1980. It was 27% higher than the trade deficit of August 2012. By comparison, in August 2010, Japan had a surplus of ¥63.8 billion; in August 2009, a surplus of ¥165 billion; in August 2007, a surplus of ¥784.6 billion! 

For the eight month period, the trade deficit hit a record of ¥6.8 trillion, up 66% from the same period in 2012, and up 332% from 2011. During that period in 2010, Japan had a surplus of ¥4.2 trillion! Japan’s trade fiasco is on a steep downward slope. August was the worst August ever, July the worst July ever, June the worst June ever.... There’s no discernible turning point on the horizon.

Darn those facts and data! Don't you just hate it when facts and data get into the way? The data looks real bad, but Abenomics has 100% hope... Though "Hope" has never really been a good business plan...

Ten percent chance of success? Like I said, I think that's way too optimistic. Deflation was the best thing to happen to the country in a long time... It, despite government meddling, was a result of free market forces. There's no way a bunch of bureaucrats sitting in some back office could possibly know better than free-market forces what prices should be and there's also no way they can stop forever the power of free-market forces; sooner or later this is going to end badly (probably sooner since Japan's debt is 240+% of GDP). 

Abenomics is nothing more than a continuation of Japanese government policies of huge deficit spending since 1989 (on steroids).

Has a government manipulated economy ever succeeded in history?

Abenomics has a zero to 1% chance of success... 

Am I too optimistic?

-------------

On a related article about out of control government spending, please read: After Thoughts on Tokyo Being Awarded the 2020 Olympics - Will Tokyo 2020 Lose Money?... What Do You Think? 
http://modernmarketingjapan.blogspot.jp/2013/09/after-thoughts-on-tokyo-2020-olympics.html

There is No Gold at The US Federal Vaults? Won't Allow Germany to See the Gold - Won't Give Back Germany's Gold

The scam continues. Germany stores about half its gold in New York. Germany is suspicious of the US dollar and the Fed and asks for their gold back. The Fed says "that's impossible." They claim that they couldn't fill the order until 2022 (Even though German's gold is supposedly less than 5% of all Fed gold holdings). The Germany asks to see their gold. The Fed says, "No!"

Listen closely at about 2:10, in which during WW2 the Fed convinced Asian and African nations to store their gold in New York in exchange for Federal Reserve gold certificates, but when those nations tried to trade those certificates back to the Federal Reserve to recover their gold, the Federal Reserve claimed their own gold certificates were fakes, and kept the gold.

Total Media Manipulation Equals Control of the Average Population

I constantly rail on mass media sensationalism and media propaganda and manipulation of the the masses... I speak from an insiders point of view. In fact, it's so bad that I even meet people at some of the broadcasting stations that I work at who don't question, even for a moment, the propaganda that comes over the newswire... They just blindly come in to work, do their programs, and then, oblivious that they are part of the propaganda machine, they head home to come back and repeat the same drivel tomorrow...

Lather, rinse, repeat. 

Now, my good friend, Jp, sent me this interesting video and article. Let me reproduce it in full for you. From the Minds blog:

"This video is so ridiculous that it actually makes you want to punch through the screen.  There are multiple clear cases of this 'talking point distribution' happening where it's obvious that some puppet masters literally surgically insert their neural implants into the minds of the masses as if we are all numb to the fact that a handful of corporations control all the mainstream media. 

Linked below is another fascinating clip of the CIA admitting that they use the news to manipulate the USA.  This is why the rise of independent media is critical for a positive transformation of the planet.  There are some who would say that this phenomenon is a result of stuff like the AP wire and is nothing more than laziness of news anchors and affiliates.  This is partially true, but definitely not completely.  And even if it is largely a true statement, what does that mean?  It means that unconscious and lazy drones are feeding us talking points from the largest agencies?  Is that healthy?  No!    

It needs to be said that in no way is this article intended to say that ALL mainstream news is 100% corrupt. (Only 90% corrupt - Mike) 

Much good reporting is done from unexpected places, but, there is a trend.  And it is a dangerous one.  Of course, in the opinion of this writer, there are also deliberate thought implants surgically inserted into society to boost ideas, kill others, and so on.  

Thanks to Jp Valentine