Thursday, February 17, 2011

Collapse of the Yen

In a blog late last year, I asked if we are headed for a yen collapse due to the Japanese government continually printing money and intentionally keeping interest rates low. 

Now, it looks like more and more people are beginning to think that a yen collapse is in the cards. Yesterday morning Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter said that the yen is headed for a "Watershed moment."

The Business Insider writes that Dennis Gartman has shorted the Japanese Yen:

The Yen is about to weaken quite sharply and we are on the verge of adding to what is already a rather sizeable position on our part wherein we are long of Canadian and Australian dollars and we are short of the Yen

Gartman continues:
We are long of “commodity” currencies, which in the current world of rising commodity prices is where we should be, whilst we are short of the industrialised nation most seriously hurt by rising commodity prices, Japan.
We are now more and more convinced that we shall not see the likes of 80-81 Yen/dollar again in a very, very long while... if ever. Nor shall we see the likes of 79-80 Yen/C$, nor the likes of 72-73 Yen/A$, for the demographics are so terribly skewed against Japan, and the fiscal circumstances are even more so, that we can readily imagine the Yen trading back to “par” in all “dollar” instances. That is, we can readily imagine, over the course of the next several years, the Yen trading “par” vs. the US, the Canadian and the Australian dollars and that we shall do well to position ourselves accordingly.

Basically, what that means is that Gartman thinks we are headed back to the ¥100 to $1.00 (USD) parity very soon.

The Wall Street Journal also wrote in January that they were expecting a Japanese Yen decline.  I hope you have food and water stored up and own some gold and silver.


Anonymous said...

That's great news! The weak yen will allow for more exports and higher profits abroad.

mikeintokyorogers said...

Is it great news? I don't think grocery bills and gas bills going up by 15% is good news for most people.

Andy "In Japan" said...

If a 15% decline in value is great news, then a 99% decline in value would be the most fantastic event ever for Japan. Yes, they would find their savings wiped out and the cost of everything would skyrocket beyond their means to pay, but at least the exporters would do well.

PS: I hacked into Anonymous' Google account and his last name is Bernanke.