Groupon Heads for Bankruptcy?

They cannot stand another year of this. How could a stock go from over $26 in November of 2011 to $7.77 8 months later is simply astounding... It had hit a high of $31.14 at IPO. From $31.14 to $7.77 is a 70.24% drop!


I warned people in November of 2011 to get out of Groupon in Groupon Stock Holders! Head For the Exits! when the share price was over $23!

But today, folks, Groupon's stock hits lowest level since IPO: $7.77 (I think, in this case, three 7s is NOT a lucky number!)

But maybe there's some good news for investors in there?

Yahoo Finance reports: Groupon's stock hits all-time low amid worries about site traffic, exposure to Europe

In addition, a Citi Investment Research analyst expressed some concerns about Groupon's exposure to Europe and its weak economy. 

Exposure to Europe, yeah? Well, that can't be good! But maybe there's a silver lining?

The Motley Fool writes: Groupon Crashes to New Low: What Investors Need to Know

Groupon continues to underperform the group. This is the second time this month that the stock has tumbled. On July 2 shares slid on news that Groupon Chairman Eric Lefkofsky was taking a step back from his role at the company. It's discouraging to see a Groupon co-founder turn his back on the company at such a critical time. In hindsight, Groupon shouldn't have turned down a possible takeover by Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) for a rumored $5.3 billion.

However you cut it, things don't look good for the daily deals site. Concerns over the financial health of the business are nothing new. Not only do I think the current stock price is well deserved, but I also have little confidence in management's ability to turn things around. I stand by my underperform CAPScall on the stock.

Gee? That article didn't have the happy ending "feel good talk" I was looking for.... Maybe this one will?

All Things reports: Free-Falling Groupon Has Its Problems, but Bankruptcy Talk Is Bunk

As the stock continued to slide, a Reuters report suggested the collapse had to do with economic weakness in Europe, where Groupon gets about a quarter of its revenue. Sameet Sinha, an analyst at B. Riley & Co., told the wire service, “Europe is a concern, obviously.” But Mahaney was less concerned about Europe, saying that there’s not much evidence it will cause a material risk to estimates. Rather, he tweaked his price target because of lower 2013 estimates.

Additionally, the stock has not yet stabilized since last week when Eric Lefkofsky, Groupon’s executive chairman and co-founder, said he had stepped back from day-to-day work with the company so he could devote more attention to his venture capital firm, comfortable with that step given the recent additions to Groupon’s executive team.

Groupon is expected to report second-quarter results in late July or early August.

No. That didn't sound too good at the end either! You know that when the bankruptcy talks come out and are denied, then there's smoke in the room.... Maybe fire in the kitchen....

-70.24 percent since IPO

Perhaps my prediction of under $5 a share in December is too high? 

Groupon has to be one of the greatest stock failures in history.... How will Facebook find a way to top that?

But, ultimately, smart old Mike, who can call stocks like Jimmy the Greek can call sports results can only chortle like a sick rooster. When I chuckle about this stuff and then look at the gold prices and see them depressed (not nearly as bad as this, though) my wife says,

"Yeah? If you are so smart, then why ain't you rich?"


NOTE: Groupon in Japan must be doing worse, actually. I haven't seen a Groupon advertisement in months. They've dropped off the map in japan and I hear nothing positive about them from women's magazine people and former users.

Need More Time? Too Much Stress? Stop Drinking!

Sometimes work just seems to get out of hand and, no matter what you do, it seems like there's not enough time in the day to get done all the things you need to. I've had this experience many times.

In fact, from the middle of 2011 to the end of the year, I felt this way constantly. I was carrying a heavy schedule and also had serious stress from dealing with partners and investors. Sometimes it seemed that I had no one to talk to.


I was doing my best to go out and make sales for my new company and, due to the nature of the business, that meant going out at night and drinking with clients and potential customers. That's really where the problem begins; I like to drink. Sometimes I like it too much.


In Japan, it is very common for business deals to be worked out, not at the office, but at a drinking establishment. I've concluded hundreds of deals this way.

I've concluded so many deals the good old Japanese drinking way that I don't even remember them all.


I also don't remember, often times, how I got home after making those deals. I just woke up the next morning, in bed, with a massive hangover. That's the problem with drinking; it's hard to be a social drinker for me. I like to drink and I like the feeling I get when the alcohol "warms me up." Especially if I am at a rock concert or dealing and meeting with music industry related people.


Even so, I've gone periods when I drank every night for months. I've also gone periods when I didn't drink at all for months. Alcohol is a very powerful drug and your body will still feel the effects of it long after you've stopped drinking. I noticed that, in the times I'd go for months without a drink that if I had even one beer, I'd feel tired the next morning. Really! Even one drink at night will have a sedative effect on you the next morning when you wake up.


If I don't drink for about three or four days, the tiredness feeling starts to go away. Seriously, that's how long it takes; three or four days. If you go without a drink for about a week or two, then you will have completely flushed the alcohol out of your system and start to feel much more energetic.


So, if you are a regular drinker, try that: one day without even a taste of alcohol will make you feel better the next morning. Two weeks will make you feel much better and younger. If you go on a raw food diet and don't drink for six months, you will lose 20 kilograms (44 pounds) and feel like you are 17 years old again. I know, I've done that. (Actually doing that again is my New Year's resolution - that is starting today!!!!)

When I stopped drinking and went completely raw food for six months, I lost 17 kilograms.

This photo was two years ago.

I want to do that again. But I digress....


This is a post about creating more time in your day by abstaining from alcohol. You really can lighten your work load and create more time by doing so.


Last year, in the middle of November, I went to work and saw an old friend of mine who was the founder of a multi-million dollar company and retired a millionaire before 50-years-old. We had a nice talk and I told him that I was extremely over worked, tired and hung-over (funny that, being tired and hung over is not conducive to efficient work and time usage). I told him that I was out with a business acquaintance of ours that we've both known for years. That business acquaintance's name is Ray.

My image of Ray Hearn as a father just kidding, of course!

Ray is a world famous concert promoter. He founded Beatink in Japan. That means he does live the life of "Sex, Drugs, and Rock n Roll" (no drugs in Japan, of course). Ray is a wild one. Wildly successful and wildly crazy sometimes. The night before I had dinner with Ray and we started at 5:00 and by 9:00 pm we had drank a few cocktails and (I think) four bottles of wine. After that, we went back to Ray's house and watched Japanese sixties Sci-Fi Horror flicks. There we drank at least another six bottles of wine. I lost count. The next thing I knew it was 3:30 am and I told Ray that I just had to go home. Ray started yelling,


"Mike Rogers you wimp! Get back here and let's drink some more wine!" 


He was still yelling when I crawled out of the house and I am sure Ray and his girlfriend drank some more (well, actually she doesn't drink that much - Ray drank more)... Like I said, I stumbled out the door and slithered down the stairs to the street. I don't remember how I got home.... Typical.


The next day I had a hellacious hangover and four important meetings to attend to.


That brings me back to meeting and talking with my retired at 50-years-old millionaire friend in the middle of November. I told him about drinking with Ray and he laughed. He knew too well what drinking with Ray was like. I told my friend about how I was burning the candle at both ends and I asked for advice on how I could open up more time for myself. He smiled and laughed and said, 


"Stop drinking."


I protested. How can I stop drinking in Japan? A country that has a culture of sales and personal business relationships built on deals made over drinks?


My friend smiled once again. He said,


"I know another extremely wealthy president of another company who had the same problem so he went to a retired businessman he greatly respected to ask for advice. The retired businessman told him to stop drinking. The wealthy president claimed the same as you do, 'impossible to stop drinking because of the ways of business in Japan.' The retired businessman said, 'Yes. That is true. But drinkers will also understand the sufferings of other drinkers. Tell your friends that you have some sort of illness that prevents you from drinking.'"


That was like a light going off in my head. It's true. I know from experience. When I had a terrible gout attack, and had to stop drinking, none of my friends pressured me to drink: they all felt really sorry for me! Really!


Trust me. Many (most?) guys who drink who are in their fifties or later have had drink-related problems or know someone very close to them who has. We do feel sorry for you if you don't want to drink.

Being a teetotaller has had a very uncool image for years! 

The moral of the story? If you want to feel better and be more productive and wake up fresher, stop drinking. If your peers pressure you, I gave you a good excuse just now: Just say you have gout or border-line diabetes. They'll stop bothering you (or they're not your friends!) By feeling better and being more alert and alive, you will get more work done in a much faster and more efficient process. You probably can't cut down all those meetings, but you can help yourself to get a better rest and to feel younger and more energetic and clear-headed if you stop drinking for a few weeks.


Now, that's how you create more time and less stress for yourself.

Nah. I stopped that three years ago.

As for me, I'm getting ready to start working the new year in earnest from this Tuesday. It takes a lot to get myself ready and mentally prepared to go out and do my best. But I have decided to do it. I want to do it for work, for my health and to help me spend more time with my family. 


I am going to eat raw foods only for a few months and stop drinking starting today. Wish me luck? Any readers out there who wish to join me for a cup of tea?


Thanks to: my dear friends Ray Hearn and Koji Kamibayashi