Thursday, December 1, 2011

Japan and Europe Imminent Default - Kyle Bass Letter to LPs

Kyle Bass has written his latest letter for Hayman Capital Management. It is not good. Read it... This one sentence sets the tone for the poor outlook for the economy of Land of the Rising, er, Setting Sun....Er, Japan.

"... We believe the debts of the following nations, among others, are not sustainable in the current economic environment: Greece, JAPAN, Portugal, France, and, have we mentioned Japan?"

Notice, on page 9, that Japanese government debt is at "229% of GDP."

Click the box circled in red below the letter to view in full screen
Or click here to go to full screen.
Hayman_Nov2011 Thanks to Zerohedge


Mr. Nobody said...

Hello Mike!

The saying goes something like, younger people save for the future, older people spend for the present. When there are fewer and fewer Japanese young people, who will they get to buy JP bonds at a 1% rate?

The choice quote, from p.9:

"Personal savings of the Japanese population is forecast to be below zero by the middle of 2012. Their ability to fund themselves internally is coming to and end. We believe that Japan would have a bond crisis of its own within the next two years without the current European debt crisis."

mike in tokyo rogers said...

Mr. Nobody,

This country is in serious trouble. The only saving grace for Japan is the homogenous society and a lack of violence and crime... It is hard to imagine that crime in Japan could ever reach near the proportions they are in the USA... At least, I hope.

Mr. Nobody said...

Hello again Mike,

I think there are probably many advantages to a homogenous culture. Since the USA seems to be less and less homogenous, it seems to be a taboo to mention the fact the many other cultures could have advantages because of their homogeneity.

As to straightforward crime, I definitely agree that is is a great deal less than the USA. Although some of it most likely isn't covered.

As to other crimes, people seem to have an almost universal blind spot. It's easy to look at a man, with a knife, and a wallet, and to see a mugging. But it's more difficult to see the same mugging through finance, or in essence, the joining of politics and big business...

openman said...

"The only saving grace for Japan is the homogenous society"

What is this a 2chan vipper thread site? Mike, are you a ネトウヨ?I lived in Japan and knew many immigrants, from England, China, Phillipines, sweden, all over. None of them committed any crimes. Quit listening to the BS the media feeds you. In fact one of Japan's reason of their failing in status is their failure to open up to immigration. Many foreigners wish to come to Japan and start business, to help improve their economy, but the all knowing-racist yamato government will not allow this.

mike in tokyo rogers said...

Openman. Thanks. Strongly beg to differ.

Homogenous Society.

Quote: "A homogeneous society is such a society where most of the people share the same type of cultures values, language, ethnicity and religious system…..

Types of homogeneous society
Homogeneity comes to a society in a numbers of ways-ethnically (Japanese)…."

As far as "ネトウヨ" I have never heard this word and I speak Japanese (have hosted shows on Japanese talk radio for years). My Japanese wife has never heard of it either, so I don't know what you are talking about.

Sorry again.
 Your final point that Japan is failing because of not opening up to immigration is, I believe, completely wrong and typically incorrect mainstream thought as proposed by the mass media.

USA and Europe opened to immigration. Did that help them? No.

 You need to better understand true economics rather than jingoism. 

Would Japan had been better off with more oversupply of labour and more unemployment? NO WAY.

I think that many others want to fool people that the US & EUROPE does not have problem with oversupply of labour. The lack of current and future oversupply of labour is probably one of the strengths of the Japanese economy.

However, the economic problems come from a misuse and poor allocation of monetary resources. It is arguable that the Japanese government should probably have increased taxes on consumption in the past (which would have reduced the demand for labour even more) in order to reduce or eliminate the budget deficits rather than borrowing from the population (though I am against taxes). Instead of investing in government bonds, people should have been encouraged to invest in stock, probably in stock linked to growth markets in Asia. Decreased taxes on dividends would probably have decreased government revenues very little but the Japanese people would probably have benefited a lot from that.

Increasing the foreign labor pool of low-level laborers will not help Japan's economy. Neither will having a bunch of white color workers who are unproductive because they do not speak the language.

openman said...

I do not know what kind of school of economics you belong to. I myself am an free market anarchist who strongly believes in the free creation of contracts between consenting individuals. For example lets say I am a Japanese store owner, and I happen to have a friend in China who I want to work in my store. However he does not qualify for a work visa under the rules Japanese government has set. Despite this I decide to hire him anyway, and we both agree on a voluntary contract that I will pay him 1000 yen an hour and he will give me some labor in exchange. This is called a "contract". The government does not recognize this contract, because it does not fall under their rules of operation. However, under a free market, voluntary society the government(and likewise you, and others who oppose immigration) have no business in telling me(the Japanese store owner) and my chinese worker who I can or can not hire. That is collectivism. You mind your own damn business and I will mind mine. I have no problem if you run your own business and only hire Japanese people and even if you only let Japanese people in your store. That is your business and I will not call on a third party(such as the government) to try and take away your rights. You may say "well, that job belonged to a Japanese". But you are wrong, Japanese(and likewise, Americans when complaining about so called illegal mexicans) have no natural entitlement to a job just based on the sole fact they happened to have been born in a certain plot of land. They will have to compete for it in a free market where the market decides the requirements on who will be able to immigrate. Not the government.

as for ネトウヨ it means in internet speak an extreme right winger on the internet. here is an example of this usage (scroll down some for the article) this article talks about the right wingers angry at a group called perfume(who are very cute and very good singers too by the way) because they were on a tv show and said they liked kimuchi nabe. This caused the ネトウヨ to become angry and spout their anti-korean messages and calling korean チョン and saying they should die and what not.

mike in tokyo rogers said...

Openman, Thx! Please read the comments rules.

As a long time a free market anarchist, I have the credentials to prove it. Please Google.

The free creation of contracts between individuals is a right and not government business. But I don't see where that has anything to do with Japan being a homogenous society (the original discussion). That is a non-sequiter in this case.

You claimed that Japan was not a homogenous society. I proved that it was, now you are onto a claim about hiring Chinese workers. Trust that if you are a business owner in Japan, and you want to hire a Chinese worker, the law will allow you to do so. I own 2 businesses and my partner owns restaurants and hires cooks from China. He goes through the hoopla and hires the people he wants. Easy? No. But he does.

The part of your comment that I would ask that you tone down are rude ones like, "and likewise you, and others who oppose immigration." It is nonsense to say that I am against immigration. I am an immigrant for chrissakes! Just because I say, "Japan is a homogenous society" that equates me with being anti-immgration? Extraodinary!

In fact, at one of my companies, there are six full time people. Three Japanese, two Americans and one Brit. The Americans have all been there for over 7 years and the Brit has worked with us for over 22 years. I not only talk the talk, I walk the walk.

Please, you are preaching to the choir. The problem is that you want to attack anti-immigration laws here on this site. You are in the wrong place. As a true anarchist, I don't believe in any immigration laws, and you will find, if you search all of my writings that I have never once advocated any increase in any laws anywhere

End part 1

mike in tokyo rogers said...

Part 2

Next, Openman, my friend, I think you are working yourself into a huff here and flying off the handle a bit. Calm Down! This part is just plain silly:
"But you are wrong, Japanese(and likewise, Americans when complaining about so called illegal mexicans) have no natural entitlement to a job just based on the sole fact they happened to have been born in a certain plot of land." (sic)

When did I ever say foreigners have any entitlements to jobs? Are you sure you are not confusing me with someone else? Who brought up anything about illegal aliens, immigration or this entire subject, besides you? I didn't.

Finally, thanks for explaining "ネトウヨ"... So, because I say "Japan is a homogenous society" you think I am a "extreme right winger"? I deserve an apology from you for that! See this "Japan is a homogenous society". You'll find over 27,000 results. (Trust that I didn't come up with the definition nor conclusion that Japan is a homogenous society all by myself. It is a pretty well recognized fact all around the world even if you wish to deny it.)

Finally, because some nutters don't like the girls in Perfume, and I say "Japan is a homogenous society" that equates me with Hard core right winded nationalism? Hmmm? Interesting.

As a guy who works with Korean artists and promotes them on my radio and TV shows (and even sells their tickets) in Japan, I'm sure many of my Korean artists friends and their managers and friends, will be thrilled to learn that I am some sort of secret Korean hater. I'm also sure my 1/2 Japanese 1/2 Korean mother will also love that.

Not being one to write too much on that subject, here is one I wrote. I'm sure you'll find the comments section whereby I blast a seemingly racist commentator to be of interest."Korean Artists getting popular in Japan".

Openman, my friend. You need to calm down and realize that you are the one jumping to conclusions (with little background info) and are trying to convince the wrong people of the sins of legislation. The readers to this site are pretty much Libertarian or Anarcho-capitalists so I'm not sure who you are arguing with.

openman said...

Here is what I am talking about(this is from a comment you posted earlier)
"The only saving grace for Japan is the homogenous society and a lack of violence and crime."
Yes, no doubt Japanese is a homogenous society, like I said I have lived in Japan before, and was quite aware of its homogenousness(and no I was not bothered by this, after I a while you blend in and dont even feel like you are a gaijin). I do not understand by what you are trying to say by being homogenous that Japan will be better off than other countries. By reading your comment, what I take from that is that you equate a homogenous society with being a safe society. In turn it is a nice way of saying it is a safe society because there are no foreigners to commit crimes(which means that someone thinks foreigners mostly commit crimes).
If that is not what you meant I do aplogize, I do not wish to call you something you are not. However, reading that comment is hard to distinguish that that is not what you mean. as you often read such words in common anti-immigrant articles. But maybe it was just the close wording of homogenous society and low crime rate in close range of each other which sparked it. Like I said it sounds like I may have mis-read your comment, for which I do apologize.

mike in tokyo rogers said...

Thanks Openman. You are a nice guy.

"...homogenous society AND lack of crime." They may or may not be mutually exclusive. This was not a social commentary, it is a statement of facts. Like I own a refrigerator and an car. Merely because I own a refrigerator that has no relationship to why I have a car.

I'm sorry I got huffy at you too. Thanks. It's probably my fault.


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