Here is an excellent report that was sent to me by my friend Aaron Egon Moser. I've written before about how it is possible that these events could seriously damage the Japanese (then world?) economy in Japan's Double-Edged Sword: What Happens When the Nuclear Power Plants Turn Off?
To think that Japan can go on from here, into the next fews decades, in an era of declining oil production and rising oil costs and public debt coupled with an aging population problem without a cheap energy source is foolish and completely unrealistic....
In other words, it's not economical. The Center for Global Energy Studies says:
Despite high oil prices, fossil fuels will continue to trump renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power without massive government subsidies, a new investment bank says.
A report by Calgary-based AltaCorp Capital says the “economic realities” of oil and natural gas mean that the world will remain largely dependent on non-renewable energy sources for the foreseeable future.
Japan's government already has the highest debt to GDP levels in the world, it cannot afford to subsidize new industries like solar or wind farms... People will misunderstand what I have written here and say I'm pro-nuclear power. I am not. I am pro-business. I wish we didn't need nuclear power at all. My motivations are purely economical. I wish I could say it were true that Japan didn't need nuclear power to survive but it seems to me, that if I had to put it into a black and white perspective, it's a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" sort of problem for Japan.
Or could this be an opportunity for Japan to, once again, rise from the ashes of disaster? Watch this thought-provoking interview:
Let's hope that this summer is cool and geo-political problems give Japan breathing room and oil and natural gas prices remain at a relatively low cost. One can hope, right?... Not that "hope" has ever been a very good business plan...